Japanese experts to devise new flood plans

Thailand needs efficient forecasts and in-depth analysis on flood cycles to implement new flood prevention measures, says the Japan International Cooperation Agency.

The country has done its best on water management under extreme circumstances, but efficient forecasting of flood cycles is important so that it can develop more effective flood prevention measures, said Hajime Taniguchi, a Jica official.

He said his agency is revising a detailed plan on flood management along the Chao Phraya River Basin. The revision will start next month and is expected to be complete in about 18 months.

It will also include a detailed study of the data from this year's flood crisis. The plan, if completed, would hopefully determine some of the causes of the flooding this year and give suggestions on more effective measures to deal with future floods.

Jica previously worked with the Royal Irrigation Department to draw up plans on flood management along the Chao Phraya Biver Basin between 1996-1999. 

Its aim was to introduce measures to help the agricultural sector, which was hard hit by severe flooding in 1995.

A revision is now needed because of changes in land use from farming to residential and industrial areas. Jica, in cooperation with the Royal Irrigation Department and the Water Resources Department will revise the plan by including the new factors of city planning and industrial estate expansion, said Mr Taniguchi.

He said it is very important for Thailand to learn about flood cycles so that it can adopt appropriate countermeasures.

"Some say heavy flooding these days is a result of climate change. But I don't think that is the major cause. We should rather focus on flood cycles, as different cycles will mean investment on preventive measures will differ," Mr Taniguchi added.

For example, flooding in industrial estates along the Chao Phraya River Basin is expected every 10 years, so preventive measures should be developed based on this forecast.

Mr Taniguchi said that poor management with regard to releasing water from dams was a minor factor in this year's floods.

However, he said, dam management in Thailand is different from that in Japan.

Dam construction in Thailand is mainly for irrigation and electricity generation purposes. But in Japan, it is mainly for flood management.

Jica said it would also begin drawing up short-term plans to deal with next year's floods, which will include the construction of dykes and barriers to provide added protection for the country's industrial estates.

"Thailand needs to take some action before the next rainy season comes," he said.

The government has appointed Jica as an adviser on water resources management for future development.

Thailand’s Floods Felt Around the World, Disrupting Global Manufacturing

The floodwaters may be slowly  agonizingly slowly receding, but like ripples on a pond, the ramifications of Thailand’s recent floods are spreading around the globe and forward in time.

According to Businessweek, at least 533 people have been killed since late July, when monsoon rains began lashing Thailand. 

Flooding worsened in October, when rainfall (about 40 percent more than the annual average) filled dams north of Bangkok to capacity, prompting authorities to release more than 9 billion cubic meters of water down a river basin the size of Florida.

Advancing waters have swamped seven industrial estates north of Bangkok with 891 factories, and threaten two others in the capital where Honda, Isuzu Motors Ltd., and a unit of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. have operations. 

Half the world’s hard-disc-drive manufacturers are either closed or on restricted working status, and automotive parts manufacturers, particularly Japanese supply chain firms, are particularly hard hit. 

Honda had to cut output at some North American plants this month as a result of disrupted parts supply, and a NY Times news service report said the flooding has forced Toyota to slow production in factories in Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, North America, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Africa and Vietnam.

As the ripples spread, Japanese steel mills are trimming steel production in anticipation of slowing or delayed steel demand from the auto industry. 

The FT reported this week that car manufacturers have been asking mills to delay deliveries of steel sheet, causing Nippon Steel and JFE to shut capacity and revise production forecasts for the next quarter.

Although Hurricane Katrina was a case of weather pushing sea-waters inland past city defenses, it bears some similarity to Bangkok’s monsoon rains falling inland and causing flooding as the waters build on their way to the sea. 

In both cases, man-made defenses were thought to be adequate, but wholesale destruction of natural defenses has shown the weakness of relying on recent history as a guide to future expectations.

The monsoon rains were said to be the worst in 70 years, but the frequency is expected to increase as weather patterns change. 

The NY Times explains a large share of the industrial growth in Thailand has occurred on the floodplain north of Bangkok. 

Rice paddies were paved over to make way for factories, suburban housing and shopping malls, blocking the natural path and absorption of water during the monsoon season. 

Experts feel the Thai government will be given one chance and one chance only to make the necessary investments to provide canals, drainage and other defenses before foreign investors (particularly Japan as the largest) start to look for new sites to put their money in Vietnam, Indonesia, India and elsewhere in Southeast Asia.

As for us, we can expect to pay more for electronics containing hard-disc drives, particularly external HDD, as prices charged by those not affected rises. 

Car deliveries may also be delayed, although the supply chain was reasonably well-stocked and most manufacturers do have redundancy elsewhere to keep them going; but as an example, the new Honda Civic launch in the UK has been postponed by a month due to parts disruption from Thai factories.

As if we didn’t need any reminders after the Japanese earthquake of the global market’s interconnectedness, along comes yet another natural disaster to remind us that lowest cost is not always lowest cost.

Despite floods, X Japan's Bangkok concert was a storming success

One by one, the concerts fell by the wayside. A national flood crisis, millions displaced, travel warnings, inundated access roads, logistical nightmares _ not exactly conducive to holding large-scale events. 

David Foster, Jason Mraz plus a host of international DJs cancelled their gigs in recent weeks. Pitbull's Nov 28 concert has also just been axed.

In the middle of the crisis one show went ahead. With many access roads submerged, the promoter bussed some fans in from CentralWorld. Others navigated heavy traffic on the raised expressway, but few taxis were willing to take anyone Muang Thong-bound. 

We travelled by van from Victory Monument, after standing in a queue that was literally half a kilometre long. This was X Japan, though, and 12,000 fans on Tuesday night were determined to make it.

That X Japan took the concert and their Thai fans seriously, that they put their hearts into the show, was obvious. An eccentric performance heavy on nostalgia and sentiment unfolded before a raucous sell-out crowd at Impact Arena. 

Androgynous Yoshiki, 45, was especially popular, as he struck topless poses atop his piano or drum kit to a cauldron of screams, while singer and Kim Jong-il lookalike Toshi, 46, went through what seemed an entire phrasebook of Thai expressions between long versions of songs including IV, X, Rusty Nail, Endless Rain, Jade, Silent Jealousy and Kurenai. 

The lively Thai and Japanese fans dressed in black T-shirts, or as cosplay nurses or manga characters, seemed to know the words of every song.

''You are X!'' Toshi shouted. ''We are egg!'' the crowd shouted back in a Thai accent.

Japanese tests, marked by the teacher, are covered in Os and Xs _ maru and batsu, or good and bad. It's a duality that marks much of social categorisation, and perhaps helped influence the band's name, inferring they're a band of outcasts. 

This in turn may have sparked the devotion the band inspired and continues to inspire in young fans, as those who consider themselves outsiders find a collective.

''I met Toshi when I was four years old,'' Yoshiki, who writes most of the band's music, told the crowd. ''In middle school we formed a band.''

That band was Dynamite, which became Noise, which became X.

X came out of the glam-rock era, and were recognisable by their garish costumes, voluminous hairstyles and even louder music.

They added Japan to their name once they went global, to differentiate themselves from the US punk band X.

''It hasn't been an easy road,'' Yoshiki admitted. He spoke of the pain of losing Hide and Taiji, of the vicissitudes of modern stardom and breaking up the band in 1997.

When guitarist Hide died in 1998, found with a towel around his neck, tied to a door handle, it was officially ruled a suicide.

At least three fans died of copycat suicides within a week. At his 50,000-strong funeral, 60 fans were hospitalised and 200 needed medical treatment in first-aid tents.

For 10 years, Yoshiki was active as a producer and soloist, but fans were always hopeful of a comeback, even when band members categorically said it couldn't happen without Hide.

The band finally reformed in 2007, with Sugizo on lead guitar and violin and Pata and Heath continuing on rhythm guitar and bass. But tragedy would strike again.

Former bassist Taiji committed suicide in July, after a flight to Saipan during which he was agitated and assaulted a flight attendant. Three days later he was found hanged in his detention cell.

Japan's March 11 earthquake and tsunami disaster and Thailand's flood crisis also affected Yoshiki deeply, he said. (The band is reported to have made a substantial donation to Thai flood relief efforts.)

''Despite everything. we always wanted to play Thailand,'' he said. ''We waited a long, long time. And we're so happy to be here.''

In the three-hour concert the band played only about 10 songs. The performance was marked by long solos and interludes as band members caught their breath. There was a 30-minute gap between the main set and encore, so long that fans began fearing the worst.

Yoshiki has collapsed at previous concerts in Japan, and there is always a tension of impending tragedy surrounding the band. Nevertheless the crowd never stopped shouting encouragement, doing Mexican wave after wave, bursting into song, crossing their light sticks in a sea of red and green Xs while chanting ''We are X!''

Finally Yoshiki reappeared, in traditional Thai dress.

''I wanted to try this on but they told me it was for women,'' he said shyly. ''So I said it was perfect!'' Then he played the Thai folk song Duen Pen (Full Moon), as the crowd sang along. The band finished with Art of Life, and waved to the emotional crowd until midnight.

The band has long inspired the sort of devotion in fans that some might find obsessive. When the concert was under threat due to the national crisis, the promoters BEC-Tero were inundated with emails by fans begging them not to cancel, saying they would come by boat if they had to.

''While we understand that there is a serious event unfolding around us, we also have an obligation to fans to do our best to make these shows happen,'' Neil Thompson, deputy managing director of BEC-Tero, told the Bangkok Post.

''The situation definitely affects the mood of the people, both those directly affected and those who are not. The scale and scope of the flooding has been really difficult to predict.

''There are so many other aspects that add difficulties to organising concerts and events such as safety, logistics, transportation, access to the venue, commute time, combined with our own staff who have been affected directly by the flooding.

''We follow the long-standing tradition that the show must go on,'' he concluded.

This was the last concert standing in a season of cultural attrition. So ask not if Toshi's voice could still hit every note, if the guitar and violin fingerwork was flawless, if the Impact Arena sound system and acoustics could carry virtuosic deftness and subtlety as evenly as noise, if these forty-somethings had as much energy on this, the last stop on their world tour as on their first in London, five months ago.

Ask instead if this was the most raucous, good-natured and heartfelt concert of the year, and the answer might surprise you

Flooded Bangkok residents still cut off from aid

Commuters wait to board a truck to take them through flooded area in Bangkok November 10, 2011.

Brownish, stagnant water rises to waist height, lapping at the front of houses and leaving dark stains on the walls. The only way for people to leave is to take a rickety boat to the main road, where more floods await.

It's been two weeks since resident Kanyanee Ounsri and her husband last worked. Floods have forced the 31-year-old and her Cambodian husband, a clothes seller, to stay put deep inside a long and narrow street, south of Bangkok’s old Don Muang airport.

"Even if my husband could go to the market to sell the clothes, it is under water," Kanyanee told AlertNet. Her job as a seamstress is gone too, she said.

"We used to get about 700 baht (about $23) a day between us working," she added, holding her six-month-old son, while her husband looked on silently.

"We are now quite worried because we have been using our savings... after the water is gone and the recovery starts, maybe we would have to borrow some money to get by."

There has been much fretting over whether or not inner Bangkok will remain flood-free, the inundation of seven industrial sites and the massive losses Japanese investors have suffered - some say they are the biggest since the Second World War even taking into account Japan’s recent earthquake and tsunami.

But aid agencies say the authorities should not forget ordinary people like Kanyanee when Thailand recovers from its worst floods in recent memory.

On Thursday, Kanyanee's family and 300 other households in her street received their first relief items since the floods began. They have come from the Red Cross, courtesy of a donation from the European Union.

LIVING WITH STAGNANT WATER

On a normal day it takes less than an hour to drive from Bangkok's business district to Kanyanee's street, but on Thursday the journey required three types of transport - a van, an army truck and a boat - and took more than two hours.

Although some families have evacuated their homes and are sheltering in empty flats nearby, many others have refused to leave, choosing instead to stay on the second floor of their houses.

Locals are getting around in boats, which range from small bamboo rafts to some made out of thick Styrofoam. Others wait at flooded bus stops for transport provided by the military or aid groups.

Reaching all those who are not in evacuation centers is a major challenge, Pichit Siriwan, deputy director of relief and community health bureau for the Thai Red Cross, told AlertNet.

"In some areas access is getting better but in some areas it is getting worse... we have tried our best but there are some areas that are inaccessible," he said. 

Every morning, we send out more than 10 high trucks, some of them carrying a flat bottom boat so in places where the truck cannot go, the boat can."

Save the Children's spokesperson Annie Bodmer-Roy said the charity had to turn back from visiting an area because of fast-rising waters a few days ago.

"It is extremely frustrating because you know people need these hygiene kits, that some people couldn't brush their teeth because they haven't got soap or toothbrush," she said.

For now, having access to clean drinking water is "the most serious problem", Pichit said.

The Red Cross is also concerned about migrant workers, he added. "Some of them don't have any documentations and nobody knows how many there are and where they are. We are trying to locate them," he said.