GDP growth forecast to fall further

The Bank of Thailand will drop its growth forecast even lower for gross domestic product this year as the massive flood works its way through Bangkok and into Samut Sakhon.

"How much [the Monetary Policy Committee] will decide to revise downwards the GDP figure on November 30 will depend on the latest estimated loss figures. The situation has not yet stabilised," Deputy BOT Governor Suchada Kirakul said yesterday.

The flood situation is still evolving. Flood waters are spreading into downtown Bangkok and some areas of the neighbouring provinces, she said.

On October 28, the central bank slashed its growth forecast to 2.6 per cent from 4.1 per cent after floods swamped almost 10,000 factories and threatened to seep into the capital.

The tourism industry is expected to see a decline of about 700,000-800,000 arrivals this quarter, resulting in the no-show of about Bt20 billion in income. These effects were not taken into consideration at the previous MPC meeting, she said.

The latest estimated damage to manufacturing is a minimum of Bt150 billion, up from the previous estimate of Bt110 billion. The estimate will be updated before the MPC meeting.

The MPC, which paused its policy-rate hikes at its October 19 meeting because of the floods, will likely assess the severity of the flood's impact before deciding on the rate's direction.

If the economy worsens, policy-makers could shift towards a more accommodative stance, Suchada said.

"At the last meeting, the MPC acknowledged how bad the floods were. A decision was made then to leave the rate unchanged," she said. "The rate's next direction may be to be held as is or lowered. The market knows this signal. And this is help the central bank can provide directly, a monetary policy that supports economic recovery."

On October 19, the MPC decided to keep the policy rate on hold at 3.5 per cent, citing the nation's severe floods and weakening global economy.

Tisco Wealth expects the Thai economy to expand only 2 per cent this year, if the government fails to fix flood problems within a few months and areas of inner Bangkok are seriously affected. In the worst-case scenario, the fourth-quarter economy will contract.

Tisco Wealth will re-evaluate the 2012 situation. It noted that manufacturing should recover quickly if the machinery in inundated industrial zones is not significantly damaged.

BT 3.1 BN Earmarked to Provide Compensation

The Cabinet yesterday approved Bt3.1 billion to be spent on compensation for flood-hit Bangkok residents.

The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration has been instructed to look into people's eligibility for compensation within two weeks, with each eligible family entitled to Bt5,000.

"Within 45 days, compensation should reach the eligible people," deputy government spokeswoman Anuttama Amornwiwat said yesterday.

She added that preliminary information shows 621,355 families in Bangkok had suffered from the floods. However, only families whose houses have been submerged by flash floods or left swamped for at least seven consecutive days, which has damaged their properties, are eligible for compensation.

"Only residents in disaster-hit areas, as declared by the BMA, claim compensation from the government," Anuttama said.

Army in last-ditch effort to save estates

Water levels in key waterways near Suvarnabhumi Airport are increasing slowly, while preventive measures and monitoring of the situation are underway.

The level in Lat Krabang Canal north of the airport has increased by 2 centimetres, and a branch of it in the south by 4cm. 

The level at the nearby Lat Krabang watergate has increased by 3cm, and at Prawet Burirom watergate by 3cm, senior airport official Suk Phuengtham said.

Airport director Somchai Sawasdiphol said the situation was under control, as the flood water surrounding the compound was between 40cm and 67cm, while the flood barriers were 3.5 metres high.

The military has repeated its pledge to defend the Bang Chan and Lat Krabang industrial estates from encroaching floods. Defence Minister General Yuthasak Sasiprapha said there was time left for the military to do their best. 

"These are two estates that have so far survived the floods. If we fail again here, we have failed right across the board," he said.

Engineering Institute of Thailand chief Thanes Weerasiri said Bang Chan was not protected by a surrounding flood barrier as Bang Chan Canal runs through it.

"The best way to deal with flooding is to let the water flow as fast and in as much quantity as we can," he said.

Each factory is protected by individual floodwalls of two metres high on average. Requests for water pumps have been made to the city administration.

"I cannot give a 100-per-cent guarantee that the Bang Chan estate will escape the flood waters," Thanes added.

A section of the Western Outer Ring Road is being cleared of flood water so as to link to Route 340 and provide an alternative to Rama II Road for journeys to the South.

Transport Ministry permanent secretary Suphoj Samlom said cutting a flood channel through Rama II Road would be useless and deprive drivers of a viable route to the South.

Flood waters not for krathongs

Authorities have warned Bangkok residents against floating their krathongs in flood water.

Krathongs are decorative floats that Thais have for centuries floated on the night of Loy Krathong, one of the country's most colourful festivals. This year, the Loy Krathong festival falls tomorrow.

However, millions of Bangkok residents are now surrounded by flood water and many may be tempted to launch their floats in front of their inundated homes, a move that many agencies fear could cause fire.

People usually light candles on their krathongs.

"If your floats get trapped in a house and cause fire, you will face legal action," Deputy Metropolitan Police Commissioner Maj-General Amnuay Nimmano warned.

He said revellers should strictly float their krathongs in prepared areas only.

Bangkok Governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra said the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) would open unaffected public parks for the Loy Krathong festival so that people could celebrate a centuries-old tradition.

According to a senior BMA official, up to 16 public parks will be open for the Loy Krathong Festival, including Lumpini, Benjakiti and Benjasiri parks.

"Don't float krathongs from your flooded houses as that might cause fires," Sukhumbhand warned.

He also advised people against floating krathongs in the Chao Phraya River and canals with strong currents.

"It can be dangerous," the governor warned.

EM Balls Effective Academics

EM balls can control pollution in flood water, experts at Srinakharinwirot University said yesterday.

"They are effective," Assoc Prof Sumalee Leungsakul said. She is the dean of the university's Faculty of Culture, Environment and Eco-tourism.

Sumalee said her university was now handing out the effective micro-organism balls to flood victims. The Tamaka sugar factory in Kanchanaburi has donated molasses for their production.

Many Bangkok residents have sought EM balls to tackle the filthy, smelly flood water around their homes, but their effectiveness has been questioned in recent days.

Dr Sanong Thongpan, who has had eight years of experience in treating polluted water for Srinakharin-wirot University, agrees that the EM balls are effective.

"It's just that the micro-organisms used for them must have the ability to dispose of starch, fat and protein in flood water. Their micro-organisms must be from the bacillus subtilis and nitro-factor groups," he said.

Sanong said users should break up the EM balls into small bits before throwing them into the flood water.

"For every 10 cubic metres of water, you should use just two EM balls," he said, "If you use them correctly, water quality should improve within one week".

HM concerned about his people: Army chief

His Majesty the King is concerned about flood victims and wants to see the deluge drained away soon, Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha said yesterday.

His Majesty has proffered advice and granted audiences to the government to consult with him, the general said. All Thais, out of gratitude, should express their best wishes for the beloved monarch's quick recovery, he said.

What most people need is assistance during the inundation, especially those having to continue to go to work, he said. The Army has been providing transport services to affected people, though that sometimes wasn't sufficient because it has only 2,000 vehicles, and some have to be rotated for maintenance.

The Army has asked the National Flood Relief Operations Centre for more vehicles.

Food and bottled water distribution can't cover all flood victims. While it is easy to take care of those living in temporary shelters, officials have difficulty in reaching others remaining in their homes in scattered locations. Most complaints come from this group.

Besides implementing policies from above, the Army also initiates its own projects, based on its inquiries into people's problems.

The Army still needs to work on water management, people management for transport and meals, promotion of the maximum use of flood relief items, and integration of state agencies to tackle issues.

Everyone in politics, the Armed Forces, police force and the public must work together to do their jobs. The Army isn't the sole hero. It is just well equipped with manpower and tools, which can be commanded due to its relationship within the military, Prayuth said.

Post-flood rehabilitation - with the government in charge - should comprise short-, mid- and long-term plans. They should include solutions for unemployment and household income.

The Army will gather information and make suggestions, but won't interfere with each ministry's work, he added.

Black Swan Alert: Low Tech Links Devastate High Tech Supply Chains

Bangkok, Thailand is under water. In perhaps the world’s worst flooding to devastate such a large city in modern times, Bangkok is home to ten million citizens and has an additional ten million people outside city limits. 

The Chao Praya river drives down the middle of Bangkok and is supported by dikes and drainage canals for rainy seasons. But this month, the river is eight feet above normal, and while dikes have not failed, flooding has caused most residents to leave the city.

The human tragedy of such a flood aside, what’s occurring in Thailand is on just about every global CEO’s radar screen. And that’s because Bangkok is a crucial link in many high tech supply chains.

David Pilling of the Financial Times notes that companies such as Mazda, Toyota and Toshiba all have suppliers and factories in Thailand. And Honda’s Thai assembly plant, which traditionally manufactures 250,000 cars a year, has been shut down for three weeks.

With such interconnected and complex supply chains, sometimes spanning many countries, Pilling says these links are “prone to strain, particularly when paired with the just-in-time practices pioneered by Japan.”

Many supply chain gurus push companies to optimize inventory practices, adopt just-in-time strategies, and reduce redundancy wherever possible. And in “normal times” this approach makes sense. However, when disaster strikes, manufacturers are discovering their thin margins for error are in fact, leaner than they should be.

Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, and professor of Risk Engineering at New York University is no stranger to interlocking fragility. He says most business professionals assume we live in a world of mild randomness, where events don’t stray far from the mean. 

Taleb argues the opposite, that in fact, because of tightly coupled financial and consumer markets (much less recurring natural disasters) we live in periods of wild randomness where small probability events carry large impacts (i.e. Black Swans). 

These extreme events—Thai flooding or Fukushima disaster, for example, are shutting down entire supply chains for weeks and even months, causing hundreds of millions in lost profit opportunities.

A solution proposed by Dr. Taleb and others is to build a robust system (in this case supply chain) with redundancies and disaster recovery processes to properly manage extreme event risk. 

And while some experts argue redundancy adds costs to already paper thin margins, there are surely costs to not supplying markets with needed product because an unforeseen event has silenced your supply chain.

Bob Lutz, former vice chairman of General Motors says it best; “Running your procurement purely on a short term, point in time, cost minimization model is like shopping for rock bottom home insurance.

It looks real smart until your house burns down.” He goes on to say; “What happens when ‘just in time’ is ‘just plain late’”?

As Floodwaters Rise, Thai PM Looks To Recovery

As filthy floodwater continued to seep towards central Bangkok, Thailand's Prime Minister laid out a three-point plan to get the country back on its feet after the worst flooding in 50 years.

As filthy floodwater continued to seep towards central Bangkok, Thailand's Prime Minister laid out a three-point plan to get the country back on its feet after the worst flooding in 50 years.

Immediate aid will be issued to people whose homes and businesses have been destroyed by the deluge which has claimed more than 500 lives since July, Yingluck Shinawatra announced Tuesday.

"This disaster is the biggest that we have ever met. We're trying to cope with situation and help as much as we can," she said. "We can't stop all flooding but we will try to reduce the impact."

Aid packages will be offered to people to help restore homes and businesses as part of a short-term recovery plan over the coming year. Details are expected to be announced next week.

Worker: Water near heart of Bangkok Longer-term plans include the formation of two committees, one to oversee reconstruction and future development and the other to manage water resources.

Yingluck acknowledged criticism of the official response to the disaster by setting herself a deadline of one year to win back public confidence.

Bangkok flooding causes road closures The prime minister's promises came as murky waters continued to move towards Bangkok's city center.

"The situation is quite serious. The water is making ground slowly but surely towards the heart of Bangkok," flood relief co-ordinator Rungsun Munkong told CNN.

Conditions difficult for Thai elephants He said thousands of people were refusing to leave their homes despite orders to evacuate to outer provinces.

"I believe thousands of people are in their homes and are still not evacuating," Rungsun said. "(They) possibly will be stranded with little food and water as time goes by."

Relief workers, distributing aid to evacuation centers in central Bangkok, said they were struggling to reach residents determined to wait out the crisis in tower blocks.

"I think it will be difficult down the road to get help to these people," Rungsun said. "People need clean water, that's the first important thing. Cooked ready-to-eat food is also quite important, baby milk and so on."

Thailand has been inundated with its worst flood in half a century, affecting at least 25 of the country's 77 provinces.

More than 500 people had been killed in the deluge according to figures released Sunday by the country's interior ministry.

A Thailand Disaster and Mitigation Department report, issued Sunday and reported by MCOT, estimated about 3.1 million people have been affected and 4 million acres of farmland have been damaged. Moreover, the department said two people are believed missing and about 75 highways have closed.

I think it will be difficult down the road to get help to these people

Rungsun Munkong, relief co-ordinatorIn the provinces of Nakhon Sawan and Ayutthaya, cleanup efforts were under way.

On Sunday, the Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra visited Nonthaburi, near Bangkok. There, the government provided 100 boats to help transport people and disperse relief supplies after requests by local officials, according to MCOT.

Despite public criticism of the government's overall response, Yingluck said she would not shake up her Cabinet -- in the short-term, at least. She explained that the focus first is to address the situation, with a full evaluation and possible shuffling to be done after the crisis abates, reported MCOT.

Floods are an annual occurrence in the country but have been particularly acute this year, and some residents and analysts have criticized the government's response.

"Now the government is sending a mixed signal that the situation is fine, but the truth is it the situation far from over," political analyst Supong Limtanakul told CNN. "It is a slow suffocating death of (the) Bangkok business area."

The city's main airport and two large industrial sites are also at risk, Supong said.

Supong said the government did not have enough resources to deal with floodwaters, noting that officials had recently asked the private sector for water pumps to help drain water out of Bangkok.

M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra, Bangkok's governor, told MCOT that it may take up to two weeks to drain water out of Bangkok's main roads, and months to drain water from smaller roads.

Dike Guardians Confident of Repelling Thai Flood

Shifting sandbags in front of Nestle SA’s ice cream plant in a Bangkok industrial park, Ittikarn Puangpradit says he’s confident factories in the area can withstand Thailand’s worst floods since 1942.

Ankle-deep waters lapped at the curb in front of Nestle’s operations in Bang Chan industrial estate, one of two in the vicinity where a combined 322 factories are under threat from rising waters. 

Three-meter (9.8-feet) high black plastic sheets draped the factory’s perimeter, reinforced with sandbags and water pumps, as machines continued churning out desserts inside.

“I’m not worried because the water is only rising gradually,” Ittikarn, 46, said yesterday while monitoring water levels in a drain separating the factory from the road. “In other estates that were flooded, the waters rose very quickly. This is manageable.”

Keeping Bangkok’s biggest industrial parks dry is key to government efforts to reassure investors who have seen waters swamp seven estates north of the capital with 891 factories, disrupting global supply chains.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra yesterday said she would strengthen floodwalls around factories as part of a long-term water management plan.

“We will learn from this lesson and make sure this nightmare never happens to Thailand again,” she told reporters in Bangkok. “The government will speed up restoring confidence and trust for the country to move forward.”

More than 500 people have died since July as rainfall about 40 percent more than the annual average courses down a river basin the size of Florida, with Bangkok as its southern tip. 

Yingluck is aiming to divert the deluge around downtown business areas, a move that has increased water levels in western residential districts and near industrial estates in eastern Bangkok.

Toyota Scraps Forecast

Toyota Motor Corp. yesterday followed Honda Motor Co. in scrapping its 2011 profit forecast after the floods halted production at its Southeast Asian manufacturing base. 

The impact from the deluge combined with a weak global economy led the Bank of Thailand last month to slash its economic growth forecast for this year to 2.6 percent from 4.1 percent.

Financial investors have shrugged off the floods, with the benchmark SET Index gaining 8.2 percent in the past month and the baht strengthening 1 percent against the dollar, more than currencies in Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. 

Siam Cement Pcl, the country’s fifth-most valuable listed company, has gained 21 percent in that time, while Thai Reinsurance Pcl has fallen 37 percent.

Soldiers, Monks

Bang Chan sits 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) north of Suvarnabhumi Airport, which remains fully operational. Waters that filled surrounding roads had yet to penetrate the estate’s 91 factories, where dozens of workers used forklifts to reinforce dikes with sandbags.

Jamroon Harutanoon, 57, sat on a large pump in front of footwear maker Saha-Union Pcl (SUC) that shuttled water from a ditch toward the Saen Saeb canal, which stretches from eastern Bangkok to downtown business areas about 30 kilometers away. Bang Chan has about 20 pumps draining water around the clock, he said.

"When the army came and started building flood defenses, it boosted my confidence," said Jamroon, wearing sandals with blue pants rolled up to his knees. "We should be able to defend this estate."

Soldiers stationed at a nearby temple filled sandbags with folk music blaring from a military transport truck as monks in orange robes monitored water levels. 

The unit had previously been assigned to protect industrial parks in Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani provinces to the north, where floodwaters overwhelmed the levees and inundated factories.

‘Not That Bad’

“Everywhere we went we’d see the water breach our defenses,” Teerapat Phisondee, a lieutenant in the unit, said while looking at a sandbag barrier holding back water from the canal, which had overrun its banks. “This is not that bad. The water level isn’t rising quickly, so our barriers should hold.”

Defense Minister Yuthasak Sasiprapha yesterday visited Bang Chan and nearby Lad Krabang industrial estates, where about 600 soldiers are working to defend 231 factories employing 48,000 workers. 

The military has received greater public approval in handling the floods than the government, according to an Assumption University poll that surveyed 1,478 people in Bangkok and its outskirts from Nov. 1 to Nov. 5.

“When the water leaks in, we need to block the area, rebuild the dike and drain water as soon as possible,” Yuthasak told reporters. “We will continue to fight and buy time, and we think we will win.”

Honda Defenses

Over the past month, troops reinforced barriers around Honda’s motorcycle factory, which sits on the edge of Lad Krabang near a mass of water. 

A plywood wall wrapped in plastic and couched between sandbags and weighted oil drums sat on a gravel dike, holding back chest-deep waters that submerged low- lying wooden houses about 20 meters from the factory.

Thawat Saranatri, 49, observed a two-centimeter rise in water levels yesterday around the plant, which has stopped production for most of the past month due to a shortage of parts. He has spent that time along with about 100 other Honda employees providing hourly updates on water levels.

“I’m optimistic the factory won’t be flooded,” Thawat said. “The government and the military really put a lot of effort to protect us. If our defense is breached, investor confidence will disappear.

Bangkok Orders More Evacuations as Floods Encircle Thai Capital

Bangkok authorities widened an evacuation order in the city’s northern districts and moved to protect two industrial parks near the main international airport as floodwaters encircled the Thai capital.

Water levels rose yesterday around the Bang Chan and Lad Krabang industrial zones in eastern Bangkok, Industry Minister Wannarat Charnnukul said. Lad Krabang includes a factory operated by Honda Motor Co., which abandoned its full-year profit forecast last week after another plant was flooded.

“We won’t let them flood,” Wannarat told reporters in Bangkok. “We will do our best to give them full protection.”

Government officials gave similar guarantees last month, as floodwaters inundated seven industrial estates north of the capital, crippling global supply chains. The slow-moving pool of water edged closer to Bangkok’s central business district yesterday, reaching the northernmost station on the city’s elevated rail system and forcing fresh evacuations.

Residents were told to leave more areas of Lad Prao in northern Bangkok, and people in Bung Kum and Huay Kwang districts were told to move their belongings to higher ground as floodwaters approached, the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration said. 

All schools in Bangkok, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani and four districts of Nakhon Patom were ordered to remain closed until Nov. 21, according to the government’s Flood Relief Operations Command.

Waters more than a meter deep have moved south through Bangkok, forcing Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to evacuate her flood operations command last week at Don Mueang airport, which sits on the city’s northern edge and mostly handles domestic flights. 

The government has ordered evacuations in more than a third of the capital’s 50 districts, mostly northern, eastern and western areas.

PTT, Thai Air

The Energy Ministry, where Yingluck relocated the command on Oct. 29, is now surrounded by floodwaters. PTT Pcl, Thailand’s biggest energy company with offices in the same complex, relocated its operations on Nov. 4, and Thai Airways International Pcl began moving staff from its nearby head office as floodwaters rose, the company said yesterday.

Residents in flooded areas of Bangkok’s outskirts have sabotaged dikes protecting the inner city in the past few weeks to try to drain their neighborhoods of water, undermining government efforts to stem the water flow into the capital.

The renewed threat to factories may worsen the impact of floods that have prompted the central bank to slash its 2011 economic growth forecast and eroded the earnings outlook for companies including Sony Corp. and Western Digital Corp.

Unilever, Isuzu

“Water hasn’t entered the Bang Chan estate yet because we have a wall to protect it,” Wannarat said. “We have prepared 16 pumps to drain water if it leaks in and will add 10 more if needed to combat the floods.”

Bang Chan, 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) north of Suvarnabhumi Airport, contains 91 factories, including an ice-cream plant operated by Nestle SA. Unilever, Isuzu Motors Ltd. and Cadbury Plc are among those running 231 factories employing 48,000 workers at Lad Krabang, located 10 kilometers from the airport.

Floodwaters have inundated seven industrial estates with 891 factories that employed about 460,000 people, according to the Thai Industrial Estate and Strategic Partners Association. Sukhumbhand today ordered residents around Bang Chan to evacuate.

“The overall flooding situation remains very bad,” Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra told reporters yesterday. “As long as more water is flowing into Bangkok, the situation won’t be resolved.”

Airport Unaffected

Suvarnabhumi and public transport links are still operating normally. The airport’s perimeter is protected by a 3.5-meter- high dike, Airports of Thailand Pcl said last week.

Yingluck yesterday promised flood victims payments of between 5,000 baht ($163) and 30,000 baht for any house that has been inundated for more than seven days. She also proposed waiving all tolls on Bangkok highways and bringing in more garbage trucks to pick up trash.

“We won’t ignore people,” she said while visiting flood victims in a northern Bangkok district. “We will try to rehabilitate and bring the situation back to normal as fast as possible.”

Thailand’s Board of Investment will give tax incentives to companies affected by flooding and tax waivers on machinery imports, Deputy Prime Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said.

Bangkok officials are aiming to halt the water’s advance at the Sam Sen canal, which runs just above Victory Monument, a major traffic intersection northeast of the city center and a stop on Bangkok’s Skytrain elevated railway network, according to Jate Sopitpongstorn, a spokesman for the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration. The central business areas of Silom and lower Sukhumvit are protected by two canals where water can drain out through the Chao Phraya river, he said.

Rehabilitation

The Bank of Thailand, which slashed its 2011 economic growth forecast to 2.6 percent from 4.1 percent last month, expects expansion to slow as the global economy weakens and the impact of the nation’s flood crisis increases, according to the minutes of its Oct. 19 meeting.

Rehabilitation efforts have begun in parts of Nakhon Sawan province and will start soon in Ayutthaya as flood waters recede, Yingluck said Nov. 5. The government has an initial budget of more than 100 billion baht to help rebuild damaged areas, she said, adding that Cabinet will discuss new measures to help the economy recover on Nov. 8.

The disaster worsened last month, when rainfall about 40 percent more than the annual average filled dams north of Bangkok to capacity, prompting authorities to release more than 9 billion cubic meters of water down a river basin the size of Florida. Bangkok sits at its southern tip.

Flooding this year has affected 64 of Thailand’s 77 provinces, damaging World Heritage-listed temples in Ayutthaya province, destroying 15 percent of the nation’s rice crop and flooding the homes of almost 15 percent.

Floods Close in on Central Bangkok

Floodwater encircled two industrial estates in the east of Bangkok on Monday and closed in on the center of the capital, disrupting bus services, although mass transit train systems were still running and commercial districts remained dry.

Floodwater encircled two industrial estates in the east of Bangkok on Monday and closed in on the center of the capital, disrupting bus services, although mass transit train systems were still running and commercial districts remained dry.

Army soldiers direct traffic at a flooded bus stop near Bangkok's Chatuchak market November 7, 2011.

Starting in the north and northeast of the country in late July, the water has flowed slowly south, overwhelming industrial provinces and rice areas in the center before moving into Bangkok over the past three weeks.

It is now only about 7 km (4.5 miles) from the Silom business and entertainment district at the heart of Bangkok.

Somkid Tanwatanakul, deputy governor of the Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand (IEAT), told Reuters floodwater had reached the vicinity of the Lat Krabang Industrial Estate in the east of the city and was now about 1.5 meters (5 feet) high.

"We have strengthened dikes around the estate to 2.6 meters (8.5 feet) high. My worry is if this much water continues to hold for a long time with nowhere to go, the estate might not make it."

The estate has 254 factories with almost 50,000 workers. Consumer goods giant Unilever Pcl, Johnson & Johnson, Isuzu Motors and Honda Motor Co all have plants there.

It is about 10 km (6 miles) north of Bangkok's main Suvarnabhumi airport, which is functioning normally inside a reinforced dike at least 3 meters (10 feet) high.

Flag carrier Thai Airways International Pcl said on Monday it had moved its ticket office from its headquarters in northern Bangkok to Suvarnabhumi and two other locations because access had become difficult.

Bangkok's old Don Muang airport, still used for internal flights, has been closed since October 25.

Honda, which was only just recovering from Japan's earthquake in March, has suffered more than most. It withdrew its earnings forecasts on October 31 after it was forced to close its car assembly plant in Ayutthaya.

It also closed its Thai Honda Manufacturing plant last month at Lat Krabang, which produces motorcycles and power products, and decided to extend that suspension on Friday.

"The problem with Thai Honda has been the difficulty for staff to get to work and parts supply disruptions," said Waraporn Pongpaiboon, an official at its regional headquarters in Bangkok, adding water had not got into the plant.

DRY INSIDE

Bang Chan, another estate north of Suvarnabhumi airport, is also threatened. With 93 factories and about 13,000 workers, it is home to food firms such as Nestle SA and President Bakery Pcl, which makes buns for McDonald's.

"Our factory is still dry but outside, it isn't," said President Bakery marketing manager Yaowaret Kanjanachotkamol. "We have started to see water in some parts of the estate."

Filthy water has flooded into the streets of the estate through a canal and drains but factory compounds are dry.

"We started to cover the factory compounds with iron flood barriers after we heard about the flooding in Ayutthaya," said Charo Kritchankran, a factory manager for food and electrical equipment producer Saha-Union Pcl.

Floodwater has started to recede in Ayutthaya province -- the site of World Heritage-listed temples and an ancient capital as well as huge industrial estates -- but at the same time the danger is rising in Bangkok.

The government's flood crisis center said residents of 11 of Bangkok's 50 districts had been told to leave as of Sunday and in another seven a partial evacuation had been called.

But it said its use of so-called Big Bags -- huge sandbags weighing 2.5 tonnes -- to build a protective wall 18 km (10 miles) long across the north of the city appeared to have been successful in reducing flows into the inner city along the first 6 km constructed.

The government says 506 people have been killed and 25 of the country's 77 provinces are currently affected.

The Chatuchak district in northern Bangkok was among the latest to be issued with an evacuation order as floodwater moved in over the weekend, although its huge market, popular with tourists and locals alike, remained open.

The overhead Sky train, whose northern terminus is by the market, is running normally, as is the underground MRT system, which goes through the area.

But many poorer residents rely on buses to get around and they were having more trouble.

Saitarn Siriatcharanon, 56, told Reuters she had been struggling for six hours to reach her son in the flooded area, whereas normally the same journey would take 30 minutes.

Bangkok Mass Transportation announced the suspension of bus services in the flooded areas, with military trucks offering an alternative in places.

"I think it will take at least a month for the situation to get better," said student Tanida Aupornrungrat, a view shared by the authorities, who are having to import pumps to help.

Floodwater is heading toward Victory Monument, where many buses leave Bangkok for other towns. Rama II Road, a major highway to the rubber-producing south of the country, which has not been affected by the floods so far, is also threatened.

Thailand floods: Bangkok evacuation widens

Residents in more districts of the Thai capital have been warned to evacuate as flood water continues to move south towards the sea.

The water has now reached the outskirts of the inner city, although the authorities are still battling to keep the commercial heart of Bangkok dry.

Bus services have been suspended in districts of the capital affected by flooding

Two more industrial estates are threatened, as well as the relocated flood emergency headquarters.

More than 500 people have lost their lives as a result of the floods.

Humanitarian organisations are now concerned about communities living among the increasingly dirty water, reports the BBC's Rachel Harvey in Bangkok.

Buses suspended

More than a third of Bangkok's districts are now subject to full or partial evacuation orders.

Flood waters are gradually draining away from inundated provinces north of the capital, passing through and around Bangkok as they flow to the sea.

City authorities have been given more pumps to try to force the flood water through more quickly.

Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra said the 24 pumps he had been sent would double capacity to move water from the east of the capital.

Two more industrial estates - in Lat Krabang and Bang Chan in eastern Bangkok - have been surrounded by flood waters.

Officials at both sites said the estates themselves remained dry but water had reached surrounding sandbag barriers.

Both the subway and the overground SkyTrain are running as normal but bus services have been suspended in flooded areas.

The domestic airport at Don Muang remains closed and the new flood headquarters - which moved from Don Muang last week - is in an Energy Ministry building now surrounded by water.

Most experts agree that several areas will remain submerged for at least another two weeks, our correspondent adds.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra says she plans to set aside more than $3bn (£1.9bn) for post-flood reconstruction.

But given the extent of the clean up that will be needed, many here are already predicting the final bill could be much higher.

Thai PM pulls out of Apec summit over floods crisis

Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has pulled out of an Asia-Pacific summit at the weekend to focus on the floods crisis.

Water from inundated central areas is still advancing into parts of Bangkok, threatening two more industrial parks.

Ms Yingluck said that farmers and workers 

hit by the floods would be compensated

On Tuesday Ms Yingluck outlined plans to rehabilitate areas affected by the flooding, which has hit the economy.

More than 520 people have died as a result of the worst flooding in Thailand for half a century.

Schools delayed

Ms Yingluck had been due to attend the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (Apec) forum in Hawaii on 12 and 13 November, but she said she had asked her deputy to go instead.

"I think right now all Thais need to help each other," she said.

She announced the establishment of two committees to tackle the effects of the flooding - one to oversee reconstruction and development, the other to look at management of water resources.

Residents in 12 districts have been told 

to evacuate as the flooding has encroached.

And she said her government was ready to face the challenge of building confidence particularly among foreign investors.

The prime minister also promised compensation for farmers and factory workers, and help for businesses trying to recover from the floods.

But, says the BBC's Rachel Harvey in Bangkok, there was a conspicuous absence of hard figures or a clear indication of where the money will come from.

Meanwhile the flood waters are now about 7km (4.5 miles) from the key business and shopping districts in central Bangkok.

Residents have been told to evacuate in 12 out of the city's 50 districts.

The domestic airport at Don Muang remains closed but the Suvarnabhumi international airport - which is protected by flood barriers - is functioning normally.

Education officials have pushed back the start of the new school term in flood-hit areas by a week to 21 November.

Floods encircle Bangkok industrial estates

Floodwater encircled two industrial estates in the east of Bangkok on Monday and disrupted bus services in the Thai capital, although mass transit train systems were still running and central commercial districts remained dry.

Residents row a boat in front of a bus along a flooded street in Bangkok November 7, 2011.

Starting in the north and northeast of the country in late July, the water has slowly moved south, overwhelming industrialised provinces and rice areas in the centre and moving slowly into Bangkok over the past three weeks.

Somkid Tanwatanakul, deputy governor of the Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand (IEAT), told Reuters floodwater had reached the vicinity of the Lat Krabang Industrial Estate but the situation inside the zone was "still normal".

"The water has surrounded the complex over the past few days with a level now as high as 1.4-1.5 metres," Somkid said.

"We have strengthened dikes around the estate to 2.60 metres high. My worry is if this much water continues to hold for a long time with nowhere to go, the estate might not make it."

The estate, which is 10 km (6 miles) north of Bangkok's main Suvarnabhumi airport, covers nearly 1,040 acres and employs almost 50,000 workers in 254 factories making car parts, electrical appliances, food and beverage.

Among the international firms there are consumer goods giant Unilever Pcl (ULVR.L), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N), Isuzu Motors (7202.T) and Honda Motor Co (7267.T).

It was a similar picture at the Bang Chan estate nearby.

"Our factory is still dry but outside, it isn't," Yaowaret Kanjanachotkamol, a marketing manager at President Bakery Pcl, PB.BK said. "We have started to see water in some parts of the estate."

The government's flood crisis centre said residents of 11 districts in Bangkok had been told to evacuate and partial evacuation zones had been declared in another seven.

But it said its use of so-called Big Bags -- huge sandbags weighing 2.5 tonnes -- to build a protective wall 18 kms (10 miles) long across the north of the city appeared to have been successful in reducing flows into the inner city along the first 6 kms constructed.

WEEKEND MARKET OPEN

The government says 506 people have been killed and 25 of the country's 77 provinces are currently affected.

The Chatuchak district in northern Bangkok was among the latest to be issued with an evacuation order as floodwater moved in over the weekend, although its huge market, popular with tourists and locals alike, remained open.

The overhead Skytrain, whose northern terminus is by the market, is running normally, as is the underground MRT system, which goes through the area.

But many poorer residents rely on buses to get around and they were having more trouble.

Saitarn Siriatcharanon, 56, told Reuters Television she had been struggling for six hours to reach her son in the flooded area, whereas normally the same journey would take 30 minutes.

Bangkok Mass Transportation announced the suspension of bus services in the flooded areas, with military trucks offering an alternative in places.

"I think it will take at least a month for the situation to get better," said student Tanida Aupornrungrat, a view shared by the authorities, who are having to import pumps to help.

Floodwater is heading towards Victory Monument, where many buses leave Bangkok for other towns. Rama II Road, a major highway to the rubber-producing south of the country, which has not been affected by the floods so far, is also threatened.

Thai PM cancels APEC summit trip

BANGKOK -- Thailand's prime minister canceled plans to attend a Pacific trade forum in Hawaii this weekend as she struggled Tuesday to cope with her country's worst flooding in half a century.

The flooding began in late July and has killed 527 people, mostly by drowning. Some provinces north of Bangkok have been inundated for more than a month, although floodwaters there have started to recede in recent days as massive pools of runoff flow south.

The water has inexorably made its way into Bangkok, causing distress among the capital's more than 9 million inhabitants and heightening criticism of government's inefficiency in countering the problem.

“Now it's time for all Thai people to help each other, so I've informed (the host) that I would not go,” Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said.

The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, hosted by U.S. President Barack Obama, will bring together 21 leaders, including Chinese President Hu Jintao.

It would have given Yingluck an opportunity as a novice politician to gain diplomatic luster, but also could have opened her to criticism of ignoring flooding at home where her political rivals are keen to exploit any problems due to the waters.

Yingluck came to office in August after a Pheu Thai party landslide, but is widely seen as a stand-in for her brother, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted by a military coup in 2007 after being accused of corruption and abuse of power.

Yingluck had already canceled a get-acquainted trip to China last month because of the flood crisis.

Her energy minister said the flood crisis in Bangkok is likely to drag on for another month, as authorities issued another evacuation advisory in a northern neighborhood and floodwaters inched further into the city's heart.

Energy Minister Pichai Naripthaphan said, however, that floods may finally begin to subside in the capital by mid-November, according to a government statement late Monday.

Top officials and experts have given varying estimates of how much Bangkok would flood and how long the threat would loom over the city, with some claiming several weeks ago the biggest window of danger to the sprawling metropolis had already passed.

Instead, the flood threat has only intensified, straining sandbag-stacking residents as more and more neighborhoods are swamped each day. 

The seemingly unstoppable floodwaters have overwhelmed canals, seeped up through drains and poured down condominium-lined highways. The water has now begun surrounding the city's northernmost subway stops, threatening to shut them down.

Evacuations have been ordered in 12 of Bangkok's 50 districts, with residents of the northern district of Klong Sam Wa told to leave Monday. 

The evacuations, which also effect parts of several other districts, are not mandatory, and many people are staying to protect homes and businesses.

On Tuesday, Football Federation Australia said a World Cup qualifier against Thailand scheduled for next week was moved to a smaller stadium in Bangkok because the original venue is being used as a flood evacuation center.

Meanwhile, cleanups have begun in provinces to the north, including Nakorn Sawan and Ayutthaya, site of Thailand's ancient capital. The prime minister planned to visit Ayutthaya later Tuesday to witness recovery efforts.

Flooding has huge effect on Thailand's capital

While 60 percent of Bangkok and much of Thailand is flooded, the downtown area where I'm staying on my way back from consulting in Bangladesh is dry.

But signs of the flooding are everywhere.

Overpasses are lined with cars parked to keep them high and dry. In anticipation of more water, many shops and businesses have erected temporary barriers of bags or small concrete blocks a couple of feet out from their storefronts, forcing people to climb over them to get in.

 Street vendors selling sandals have added calf-high plastic wading boots to their inventory.

A Bangladesh regulator told me that he had to return early from medical treatment in Bangkok because nurses and technicians either couldn't get into the hospital or left to help family in flooded areas.

Thai media provide constant updates and reports of consequences ranging from rescue efforts to pictures of policemen crossing intersections on bamboo rafts and stories of imported serums to treat poisonous snake bites.

Bangkok is frequently a layover for me on consulting or adventure trips, and every so often I inadvertently find myself behind barriers of some kind. In 2006, my walking group somehow wandered behind barbed wire fences erected during protests by the "red shirts," one of the country's political movements.

In 2008, it happened again. This time, I found myself behind tire barriers erected during protests by the "yellow shirts," the other political movement. Two days after I left Bangkok, the demonstrators shut down the airport, stranding passengers for days.

This time, I'm behind water barriers. I've felt no need to worry here, but I wonder about once again being lucky enough to leave just in time.

A big mass of water still surrounds Bangkok. At the time of this writing, the deluge is slowly creeping into new roads and intersections. 

One side of the city has been told that nothing can be done to drain the water mass from the main canal. Another major canal is expected to overflow soon.

The Skytrain and subway are still running, but some underground subway exits have been closed as a precaution.

Bangkok Orders More Evacuations as Floods Reach Thai Capital

Bangkok authorities widened an evacuation order in the city's northern districts and moved to protect two industrial parks near the main international airport as floodwater encircled the Thai capital.

Water levels rose yesterday around the Bang Chan and Lad Krabang industrial zones in eastern Bangkok, Industry Minister Wannarat Charnnukul said.

 Lad Krabang includes a factory operated by Honda Motor Co., which abandoned its full-year profit forecast last week after another plant was flooded.

"We won't let them flood," Wannarat told reporters in Bangkok. "We will do our best to give them full protection."

Government officials gave similar guarantees last month, as floodwaters inundated seven industrial estates north of the capital, crippling global supply chains. 

The slow-moving pool of water edged closer to Bangkok's central business district, reaching the northernmost station on the city's elevated rail system and forcing fresh evacuations.

"A massive amount of water is still creeping into the city," Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said today. "It's a catastrophe that we can't stop all the water, but we will drain as much as we can to minimize the impact."

Residents were ordered to leave more areas of Bung Kum in the city's northeast, the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration said today. 

Thirty of the capital's 50 districts have been flooded, said Anuttama Amornvivat, a deputy government spokeswoman, adding that more than 620,000 families may receive compensation from the government.

PTT, Thai Air

Waters more than a meter (3.3 feet) deep have moved south through Bangkok, forcing Yingluck to evacuate her flood command last week at Don Mueang airport, which sits on the city's northern edge and mostly handles domestic flights.

The Energy Ministry, where Yingluck relocated the command on Oct. 29, is now surrounded by floodwaters. PTT Pcl, Thailand's biggest energy company with offices in the same complex, relocated its operations on Nov. 4, and Thai Airways International Pcl began moving staff from its nearby head office as floodwaters rose, the company said yesterday.

Residents in flooded areas of Bangkok's outskirts have sabotaged dikes protecting the inner city in the past few weeks to try to drain their neighborhoods of water, undermining government efforts to stem the water flow into the capital.

Suvarnabhumi Airport and public transport links are still operating normally. The airport's perimeter is protected by a 3.5-meter-high dike, Airports of Thailand Pcl said last week.

Victory Monument

Bangkok officials are aiming to halt the water's advance at the Sam Sen canal, which runs just above Victory Monument, a major traffic intersection northeast of the city center, according to Jate Sopitpongstorn, a spokesman for the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration.

 The central business areas of Silom and lower Sukhumvit are protected by two canals where water can drain out through the Chao Phraya River, he said.

Flooding worsened last month, when rainfall about 40 percent more than the annual average filled dams north of Bangkok to capacity, prompting authorities to release more than 9 billion cubic meters of water down a river basin the size of Florida. Bangkok sits at its southern tip.

Flooding this year has affected 64 of Thailand's 77 provinces, damaging World Heritage-listed temples in Ayutthaya province, destroying 15 percent of the nation's rice crop and flooding the homes of almost 15 percent of the country's 67 million people, according to government data. 

The death toll from the disaster rose to 527, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation said on its website today.

Economic Impact

The renewed threat to factories may worsen the impact of floods that have prompted the central bank to slash its 2011 economic growth forecast to 2.6 percent. The disaster is also hitting tourism, which the government estimates accounts for 7 percent of gross domestic product.

Flood-plagued Thai PM cancels trip to summit in US

A resident wades through floodwater at Wat Wichitraram temple in Bangkok, Thailand, Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2011. Thailand's Energy Minister Pichai Naripthaphan said the flood crisis in Bangkok is likely to drag on for another month, as authorities issued another evacuation advisory in a northern neighborhood and floodwater inched further into the city's heart.

Thailand's prime minister canceled plans to attend a Pacific trade forum in Hawaii this weekend as she struggled to cope with her country's worst flooding in a half century.

The flooding began in late July and has killed 527 people, mostly by drowning. Some provinces north of Bangkok have been inundated for more than a month, although floodwaters there have started to recede in recent days as massive pools of runoff flow south.

The water has inexorably made its way into Bangkok, causing distress among the capital's more than 9 million inhabitants and heightening criticism of the government's inefficiency in battling the problem.

"Now it's time for all Thai people to help each other, so I've informed (the host) that I would not go," Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said Tuesday.

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, hosted by President Barack Obama, will bring together 21 leaders, including Chinese President Hu Jintao.

It would have given Yingluck an opportunity as a novice politician to gain diplomatic luster, but also could have opened her to criticism of ignoring flooding at home where her political rivals are keen to exploit any problems due to the waters. She had already canceled a get-acquainted trip to China last month because of the flooding.

Yingluck came to office in August after a Pheu Thai party landslide, but is widely seen as a stand-in for her brother, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted by a military coup in 2006 after being accused of corruption and abuse of power.

Yingluck on Tuesday announced a recovery plan including the creation of a team to coordinate water policy.

About a dozen separate agencies deal with different aspects of water management, with little consultation and no clear lines of authority, hindering both planning and response to crises.

Her government also reached out to Japanese businesses, who are major investors in the seven big industrial parks in and around Bangkok that have halted production because of the flooding. They had complained they were not properly informed of the threat of the floods.

Virabongse Ramangkura, who heads a new reconstruction committee, said he will consult in Tokyo with Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry on how to aid the stricken businesses.

Japan's ambassador later Tuesday accompanied Yingluck for an inspection tour to Ayutthaya, where several of the industrial estates are located and cleanups have begun.

Energy Minister Pichai Naripthaphan said late Monday that Bangkok's flood crisis is likely to drag on for another month, though the water may finally begin to subside in the capital by mid-November.

Top officials and experts have given varying estimates of how much and how long Bangkok will flood, with some saying several weeks ago that the biggest window of danger for the sprawling metropolis had already passed.

Instead, the flood threat has only intensified, straining sandbag-stacking residents as more and more neighborhoods are swamped each day. 

The seemingly unstoppable floodwaters have overwhelmed canals, seeped up through drains and poured down condominium-lined highways. The water has now begun surrounding the city's northernmost subway stops, threatening to shut them down.

Evacuations have been announced in 12 of Bangkok's 50 districts. The evacuations, which also affect parts of several other districts, are not mandatory, and many people are staying to protect homes and businesses.