Tuesday, 15 November 2011

Flood overwhelms search engine



Top ten Search in Google Zeitgeist (week of Oct 8-14, 2011)

1. ThaiFlood.com
Thai people seeking up to date information on the floods look to ThaiFlood.com
2. Navanakorn Industrial Promotion Zone
Navanakorn Industrial Promotion Zone has flooded unable to withstand the strong flow of incoming flood waters
3. thai flood
Thais search for trusted news sources through the Internet and social networks
4. terminal 21
New shopping mall in Asoke-Sukhumvij creates a unique atmosphere brining elements from around the world into one place
5. nokia 700
Latest Nokia smartphone comes in a compact size with a touch screen
6. Eel
Latest fashion in social media is to show a customized eel picture when your internet crashes
7. Flooding 2011
Thailand bravely fights against flood waters, the worst floods the country has seen in the last 50 years
8. spring news
Keep on tracking flood situations via 3G TV online on Spring News channel
9. Flood Map
Thai people urgently seek information about areas at risk and how to stay safe
10. Movie: Billionaire teenager
11. http://thailandflooding.blogspot.com/ 
12. http://thaiflooding2011.blogspot.com/
The inspiring story of a Thai teenager who succeeds and becomes a young billionaire has been made into a movie and is now showing in cinemas

Opening a door to Thailand's TOP 40 Trendy Hotels.


To celebrate its 40th anniversary. The Nation is bringing readers specials "Top 40" selections in its Web edition.

The Top 40 lists range from luxury products, luxury cars/accessories, and innovative IT gadgets to internationally acclaimed Thais, rare Thai wildlife, must-visit restaurants/pubs, most popular Thai dishes, best locations to lve in Greater Bangkok, and fresh markets you should not miss.

The "Top 40 Trendy Hotels" category is now available,listing hot places to stay across the country, including Bangkok, Krabi, Trang, Chiang Mai and koh Samui.

Bangkok Airways assures continuity of its operation from Suvarnabhumi Airport


Bangkok Airways' daily operations from and to Suvarnabhumi Airport is running per normal schedule.

The airline's ticket counter on 4th floor at Suvarnabhumi Airport is also open as normal.

Bangkok Airways' advice and ticket policy during the flood crisis;

1. Ticket(s) purchased for travel between 14 October - 30 November 2011 can be changed or refunded without charge by calling Bangkok Airways Call Center 1771. The line opens everyday from 08.00 - 17.30 hrs.

2. Passengers are advised to check-in at least 2 hours for domestic and 3 hours for international prior departure time.

For more information please contact your nearest travel agent or visit www.bangkokair.com.

Asean members to cooperate in flood migitation and relief


Asean's leaders will agree to enhance cooperation in disaster risk management and mitigation as well as post disaster relief, recovery and rehabilitation in member countries when they meet in Bali later this week.

In a move initiated by Thailand, the 10 leaders will issue a statement on cooperation in flood prevention, mitigation, relief, recovery and rehabilitation after their summit on Thursday.

The statement, of which a draft has been seen by The Nation, calls for further cooperation among members, sharing best practices in disaster management and management of water resources.

Countries in the region, including Cambodia, Vietnam and notably Thailand have faced severe flood disasters. 

In Thailand alone, the biggest flood in 50 years has killed more than 500 people and displaced millions of others. Parts of Bangkok and the suburbs are now inundated.

Flooding stabilises, gap in "Big Bag" barrier to stay


The flood situation in Bangkok is now relatively stable although some areas are seeing surges.

The level of Bang Sue Canal has dropped slightly and the Flood Relief Operations Center (FROC) and the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) have agreed to open a gap in the "Big Bag" barrier at Don Mueang.

Water reportedly flowed in from the Phaholyothin Road drainage system and is heading to Saphan Khwai: the Lat Phrao five-way intersection has seen water rise by 510 cm, but small vehicles can still use the road.

The water level at Bang Sue Canal is declining slightly as the pumping station at Vibhavadi Rangsit is working round the clock to drain the roads.

On Ratchadaphisek Road, water remains at Panjasap School, but has significantly subsided, allowing small vehicles to pass.

In related developments, FROC Director Pracha Promnog and Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra in a joint press conference after meeting Monday said they agreed to cooperate to tackle the flood crisis in the capital.

Sukhumbhand told the press conference that the damaged "Big Bag" barrier would not be repaired but instead be widened to a 10metre opening.

The gap would be adjusted as a spillway to let water overflow to reduce the water level behind the barrier and act as a gateway for the residents' boats.

Pracha said that he believed the water overflowing from the gap would not have a significant impact on water level either behind the wall and or on inner Bangkok.

He also promised the take a good care of the people affected by the "Big Bag" barrier, particularly in terms of food distribution and garbage collection.

Bangkok's public transport struggles on despite floods


The center of Bangkok looks to have escaped the worst of the flooding that has hit other parts of Thailand.

However, the city remains on high alert with both the MRT underground rail system and BTS Sky Train overhead railway important considerations in the event of any future evacuation.

For the past two weeks, Frank Barthel has virtually been living in his Bangkok office, sleeping on a rolled-out mattress beside his desk.

The civil engineer works for German multinational Siemens AG and is responsible for ensuring that the Sky Train system built by his company continues to operate even during the disastrous floods currently engulfing the country.

The floodwater are a threat to the country’s entire public transport system and Barthel wants to be ready to deal immediately with any emergency to hit his depot.

"A new flood wave is expected to make its way here from the north next week. If the large sandbag defensive wall built five kilometers to the north doesn’t hold, then the water levels here could rise by a meter," he says.

Any substantial increase in the amount of floodwater would make the situation critical at the electrical substation, where the power supply is distributed to the train network.

"If the electricity supply fails, then nothing is possible anymore," says Barthel.

The substation is located at the depot beside the BTS terminus station Mo Chit in north Bangkok, where Siemens maintains the trains.

It’s already affected by the flood, with the car park, for example, lying under 30 centimeters of water. The entrance to the electricity substation has been closed off with sandbags that reach chest height while the walls around the facility have also been strengthened with extra sandbags.

In case the flood defenses do fail, there’s a plastic boat complete with paddles parked on what is currently dry ground. 

"If the city center is underwater, then this will be perhaps the only remaining functioning mode of transport," says Barthel.

The Sky Train has been in operation in Bangkok since 1999 and runs between 12 and 30 meters above the streets of Bangkok. It is operated by the Thai company BTSC while Siemens is responsible for the trains and the entire rail system.

Around 540,000 of the city’s population of 12 million use the Sky Train each day.

The system’s two lines run a total length of 30 kilometers and are serviced by 35 trains.

Barthel is currently on red alert, well aware that the sandbag wall at the depot entrance is the decisive defensive line.

Water pumps are already keeping the waste water pipes free of any obstruction, and access roads are already flooded, but still passable by workers in their small vans.

"However, if the water reaches this defensive wall, then we will be in full crisis management mode," Barthel says, pointing out that the depot would then be cut off from the outside world.

"Protecting the substation would then be our most important task," adds Barthel, who in recent weeks has already had the most important spare parts transferred from the building’s cellar to rooms on the upper floors.

No one knows when or even if the flood wave from the north will arrive. The people of Bangkok have been complaining bitterly at the poor and often chaotic information being given by the authorities.

Rumors abound that dams in central Thailand will have to be opened once again in order to relieve some of the water pressure that has built up but none of this has been confirmed officially.

Even companies living in fear of a new flood wave are desperately seeking reliable information about the current situation.

Unlike the situation with the Sky Train, the MRT train system’s substation is not in danger of flooding as it located three meters above ground.

"We can keep running even though some of the stations have to remain closed," says Kaviphat Nuttavuthisit, a maintenance manager for Siemens, which built the system that opened in 2004.

Four of the 20 stations are situated on flooded streets. When the waters reach the second step of a station entrance, then the alarm is raised and if the level rises any further then the entrance is barricaded shut.

However, Kaviphat has ruled out any larger amount of flooding in the tunnels.

"It will only stop making sense for the trains to run when people are no longer able to make it to the stations," he says.

Everything is in place to try and ensure both the Sky Train and the MRT stay open. There is enough food and drinking water stockpiled at both depots to last 20 people up to weeks. 

There are also large dormitories where workers whose homes are flooded can sleep.

Barthel’s temporary accommodation, however, looks far from comfortable.

"It could be worse," he says, putting a brave face on things. dpa oe kll gb ses cds

Recovering the right way


The Mae Fah Luang Foundation under Royal Patronage yesterday launched the "Kla Dee" project, which aims to help one million flood-affected people enjoy sustainable lives through affordable garden vegetables.

The foundation, which operates on His Majesty the King and the late Princess Srinagarindra's self sufficiency philosophy, started to examine flood affected areas in Nahon Sawan, Pitsanulok and Uthai Thani on October 12. 

On October 21, it planted the first seedlings at the Provincial Administration Organisation in Uthai Thani province as well as at Lop Buri Agricultural and Technology College and the Royal Thai Airforce II site, also in Lopburi province. 

The seedlings are chilli, eggplant, aubergine, holy basil or sweet basil, yardlong bean, pumpkin, water spinach, Chinese cabbage and chaom.

MR Disanadda Disakul, the foundation's secretary general, notes that because floodwaters have destroyed garden vegetables, these have become scarce in the market or else expensive. 

"Our 120day project, will help support flood victims to grow and to consume garden vegetables on a sustainable basis and this will reduce their expenses by as much as Bt600 per person or around Bt600 million in total. One they have enough for themselves, they could generate income from the additional crop. 

We estimate they could earn about Bt1,066 per person. Our seedlings will shorten the period for growing these plants. 

Above all, we hope that after the floods recede, the community networks will be sufficiently strong so they can continue to improve their quality of living."

The foundation is dividing the distribution into three steps: "ready to eat", "ready to grow", and "ready to breed". 

The budget for the Kla Dee project is around Bt65 million and Ikea, the leading furniture brand from Sweden, has already donated Bt20 million towards the cost. 

Members of the public who would like to participate are invited to donate Bt250 per set through Siam Commercial Bank, Ayudhaya Bank, Kasikorn Bank, and Krung Thai Bank to Mae Fah Luang Foundation - Kla Dee project account.

Ratch, ITD do Dawei deal Coal plants to fuel infrastructure projects

SET-listed Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding (Ratch) has formed a partnership with Italian-Thai Development (ITD) for coal-fired power plants producing almost 4,000-megawatts in Dawei, Burma.

A memorandum of understanding signed yesterday gives Ratch 30% ownership of a new company to be formed next year and ITD 70%.

In the first three years, three small-power-producer projects will be developed with a capacity of 130 MW each.

Six 600-MW units will also be built under the agreement, but Noppol Milinthanggoon, Ratch's chief executive, declined to give a time line.

The investment cost is US$1.5 million per megawatt. Ratch is also keen on related joint projects in Dawei including a deep-sea port, said Mr Noppol. Dawei, also known as Tavoy, is in southern Burma, west of Thailand's Kanchanaburi province.

SET-listed ITD, Thailand's biggest contractor, has signed a separate agreement with the Burmese government for the 10-year project, with the first phase worth $8 billion.

The entire project could be worth $58 billion.

"Mainly, these power plants are aimed at serving electricity demand in Burma for the many infrastructure projects expected to be built. The surplus will be used to strengthen Thailand's power security," said Mr Noppol.

ITD may partly offload its ownership in the project to other partners.

PTT Plc, Thailand's top energy conglomerate, is also keen to take part in the Dawei Development Project.

Mr Noppol said the Dawei project is among four foreign investments that Ratch has been negotiating, three of which are expected to be concluded next year.

Apart from Laos, Australia and Burma, Asean countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia have been singled out as investment destinations for Ratch.

In addition to power plants, the company holds stakes in coal mines in Australia and Indonesia.

Ratch predicts its generating capacity will increase from an expected 5,180 MW this year to 6,660 MW in 2016.

Foreign projects now account for 30% of Ratch's portfolio.

Thailand's largest private power producer has earmarked 12 billion baht to expand its business next year including through acquisitions.

Mr Noppol said the company's financial strength gives it room to invest in such projects.

Ratch has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1:1 and net debt to equity of 0.5:1.

Cash on hand amounts to 7-8 billion baht, while shareholder approval has been granted to issue 7.5 billion baht worth of debentures.

The company will spend 3 billion baht by next June to raise its ownership in Ratch-Australia Corporation, which was renamed from Trans field Services Infrastructure, to 80% from 56.16% now.

The power producer yesterday posted a third-quarter net profit of 1.23 billion baht, down by 1.7% year-on-year due to foreign exchange losses.

Revenue nonetheless increased by 31.6% to 14.7 billion.

Nine-month earnings edged up by 1.7% year-on-year to 4.31 billion baht, while revenue surged 2.9% to 35 billion.

Mr Noppol said the severe flooding will pressure Ratch's financial performance in the fourth quarter, as many factories and households struggle.

Electricity consumption was relatively flat year-on-year in the third quarter compared with a normal annualised growth rate of 4-6%.

Meanwhile, seven remaining projects by Solarta, a solar farm joint venture 49% owned by Ratch, have been postponed until early next year due to the floods.

Only the first 3-MW phase of a total 34.25 MW is operational.

Ratch shares closed yesterday on the SET at 41 baht, down 25 satang, in trade worth 214 million baht.

How about helping with the post-flood cleanup?

Flooded homes need to be cleaned up to become liveable again, and many of them also need repairs, but the work may be too much for householders who do not have domestic staff to help them.

There are many popular sayings associated with home -- “Home sweet home”, “There is no place like home”, "Peace – that was the other name for home”, "Life’s voyage, which is homeward bound” and “Home is paradise” to give just a few.

But the current great flood has turned many homes upside down, making them unlivable and forcing tens of thousands of affected families to take refuge in temporary shelters provided by the government or charitable organizations.

The damage done to these properties varies from house to house, depending on how long they were flooded and how deep the water. In money terms the true cost may never be known, but it is certainly astronomical.

The 5,000 baht handout promised by the government for each flooded household is nowhere near the real cost to those households flooded for a long time. 

The families will have to dig deep into their pockets to pay the bills incurred in making their homes livable again. Many will have to seek loans from a bank or from a loan shark if they don’t have credit worthiness.

But the first priority for all affected residents is to clean up their flooded houses to make them livable, at the least, even if they cannot restore all the comforts and conveniences they used to enjoy.

The immediate cleanup includes washing away all the dirt that came with the floodwater, mopping or scrubbing the floor, scrubbing the walls, moving furniture and appliances such as refrigerators outside so they can dry out in the sun, and hopefully be usable again. 

It's a daunting undertaking which may take more than just a few days.

Large families and those with maids and other household help will find the job less taxing, but for singles or married couples without any helpers it will be a very demanding task.

Outside help would make the job easier, but the problem is that few people would trust strangers into their homes to do the cleanup.

The extraordinary volunteer spirit shown by many young men and women during the flood - in the ways they helped fill and place sandbags, package and distribute relief supplies to flood victims could also play a role in the cleanup effort after the flood has receded.

It would be a great pity that this spirit is also allowed to flow away as the water recedes, because the hardship is not over for the flood victims.

Obviously, the government and state agencies have thought about helping in the cleanup, but they appear to be far more concerned with other rehabilitation and reconstruction jobs which are deemed more important. That does not mean that they cannot offer a helping hand.

It is an additional but very rewarding job which would be greatly appreciated by the affected households. The question is, which agency is going to organize the effort?

At a less complicated level, this can be done by employers as part of the corporate social responsibility programmer, and there must surely be several employees whose houses are flooded in each company.

It could be given a name like “friends help friends” - a programmer under which office workers who escaped the ravages of the flood could help their affected fellow workers in the cleanup of their homes. 

This would provide a good opportunity for employees to get closer to one another and to become friends instead of just being office colleagues.

The goodness of ordinary Thais, which was shown in their spontaneous outpouring of compassion and willingness to pitch in a help, should be kept alive a bit longer.

They have yet another undertaking to fulfill – to help with the cleanup, so our less fortunate compatriots can once again enjoy going "home".

Soldiering on through the flood Members of the Thai army are on a different kind of front line, serving the public in this hour of need

Despite not having slept for two days, Prinya Vijachai, a second lieutenant with the Thai Army 11 Regiment, 2 Battalion, King's Guard, seems in good spirits attending to the needs of flood victims in Bang Khen district.

He is one of hundreds of soldiers who work round the clock to bring relief assistance to all the residents. The 35-year-old pays special attention to the needs of women, children, the sick and the elderly. Prinya is also a walking call centre, tasked to connect distressed callers with the right source that would best remedy their grievance.

The burly Udon Thani native brushes off the need for sleep by saying that it is his national duty to serve the general public in their time of great need. 

Wearing sunglasses to cover his bloodshot eyes, he admitted that his heart went out to the thousands of families who had been affected by the deluge. His only regret is not being able to help everyone.

Soldiers came in from day one of the deluge, setting up relief call centers, shelters, transport and other flood relief measures," said Prinya in between taking calls from distressed victims. 

"I try to spend as much as time with the caller to determine just how we can help them. We also do get our share of prank calls along the way, which doesn't upset me because I realise everyone is under a lot of stress.

"Thai soldiers have united to address the needs of the people who have been affected by this catastrophic inundation. A life of soldier is all about sacrifice, so most of us have gotten used to a few hours sleep.

Compared to the numerous families that sleep in knee to waist deep waters, we are very lucky that our barracks are dry.

My sleeping pattern has been affected because the only time I get to do logistics involving donations and other relief work is when I get back to my headquarters. 

Part of my duty is to coordinate between agencies and groups interested in taking part in the flood relief efforts, which is currently focused on gathering drinking water and bamboo rafts and boats. However, we are open to all sorts of assistance."

Prinya has a team of 60 soldiers that take turns manning the Bang Khen roundabout flood relief coordination center (08-5675- 1427) daily. On the day Life caught up with him, Prinya had just taken a paralytic to hospital and was on an army truck delivering donated bamboo rafts and drinking water to the flood relief coordinating centre. 

He explained that the floating contraptions had to be distributed sparingly because there were not enough to go around. Recipients should reside in homes flooded above waist level.

As our conveyance navigated its way through a sea of murky waters, the large waves it generated landed on people who were wading through it. 

Both Prinya and his subordinate, who was in the driving seat, dutifully apologized to the pedestrians by offering them a wai.

Evacuation orders from the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) for communities in the Bang Khen and Laksi districts unfortunately fell on deaf ears, said Prinya.

"Less than 20% of the residents [in these areas] heeded to the call to leave. Many that left originally came from other parts of the country, the ones that stayed either have a home or have resided in these areas all their lives. 

Their concern for their material belongings and pets is often the primary reason they decide to stay.

"Just recently we were called to accompany a pregnant women from a house in Phahon Yothin soi 48, who despite being in labour refused to go to hospital for fear that her home would be robbed. She would only leave when we guaranteed someone would watch her place."

Just as we arrived at the flood relief center, Prinya began supervising soldiers unloading rafts and water bottles under a tarpaulin. In less than an hour, he received yet another distress call  this time from a volunteer informing him of Thongbai Thamthong, 93, who was in immediate need of medical attention for her heart condition. 

In minutes we were on an army truck heading towards Phahon Yothin soi 49/2, a paramedic and wooden boat in tow. Prinya and his men trudged through thigh-level floodwater to reach the awaiting patient.

Pencil-thin Thongbai and her husband sat precariously on their staircase as waters had risen well above a meter in their living room. On being told that she was to be taken to the hospital, Thongbai threw a tantrum and refused to leave her home saying that thieves would loot it if left unattended. 

It took 30 minutes to convince the nonagenarian to get on the boat that would take her to the army vehicle parked 200 meters from her home.

Thongbai became cheerful on the way to the hospital: "My heart has been causing me trouble, but nothing serious," mused the former school teacher. "

I don't want to be a nuisance to the soldiers who have been of great help to our community. They are sometimes slow in getting us flood relief, but I understand this is because they are busy with many tasks.

"The other day one of my neighbors called one of them to fix a faulty electric wire. He managed to do a good job. But when she wanted to show her appreciation by offering him a small reward, he refused to accept it. 

I have found them to be patient and kind to us. I am relieved to know that they are nearby and can be called on for every need."

Thongbai rolled her eyes in anxious anticipation when asked to comment about the rising waters in her home.

She said in all her years she had never experienced such severe flooding. "If you ask me, the deluge is here to help us purge the poison that has been caused due to disunity among Thais. I hope we can all learn a lesson from this."

As we sat chatting, a number of pedestrians, who bravely had ventured out to purchase groceries, requested to be picked up and sent to their home a few sois away. 

With an acute shortage of public transport, army vehicles often pick up residents traveling in the same direction.

On the way to sending Thongbai to hospital, Prinya's phone began to ring of the hook once again, this time requesting assistance to pick a lady in her early 50s with thyroid complications from Amarin Nives 1 housing estate. As the patient's home was on our way, we picked her up on a stretcher from a housing estate chest deep in water.

The army truck left us at the Bang Khen roundabout on its way to the hospital because Prinya had to supervise a team of soldiers to carry donated clothes to an evacuation shelter at Phranakhon Rajabhat University. 

During the half hour wait, we managed to have lunch consisting sticky rice and dried green curry rolled up neatly in plastic bags. It was 3pm by now.

Prinya ate his meal while answering his phone under a makeshift tent, which served as a flood relief center with a couple of chairs and fordable table. 

A few meters away a young soldier was attending to a deaf young woman's request to enter her flooded home to retrieve her belongings. He seemed attentive and spoke kindly, offering a bag of lunch and drinking water to her as they communicated through written language.

On our way to Rajabhat University, Prinya said that his biggest worry was for people in waist-deep waters and hoped that they would request to be evacuated soon. 

Since the floods converged a month ago, over 400 residents had moved to Chon Buri's evacuation center. He said a concerted effort should be made to find safe areas that are not in sectors susceptible to floods.

Chaeng Watthana Road, where the Phranakhon Rajabhat shelter is housed, resembled an expanse of klong water. Needless to say, the educational institution is also under flooded water. 

The housing for the evacuees is on elevated ground. After the team effort taken to distribute used clothes to them, we concluded our mission for the day as the sun began to set by accompanying soldiers to survey the communities that live in the inner sois of Phahon Yothin and surrounding areas.

By and large residents in the communities put on a smile for the visitors. Chai, a 29-year-old shop owner, said he has a renewed sense of respect for the soldiers since the waters destroyed his business and they stepped in to assist with bringing some sense of normalcy in their daily lives.

"Since the floods arrived, the soldiers have become a part of our community. They might not always be efficient but they are polite to us. I believe that they are genuinely concerned about our well being. 

Through the kindness they have showed us, I have a more positive opinion of them. When we offer them money for a kind deed, they refuse. 

They say if we want to show our gratitude towards them to post an encouraging message on Facebook."

Rangsit residents decry lack of assistance

PATHUM THANI : Residents of flood-ravaged Muang Ake housing estate in the Rangsit area of Pathum Thani have cried foul over a lack of flood management and assistance from local administration bodies.

The residents have been left without help from local officials since former Pathum Thani governor Phirasak Hinmuangkao was abruptly transferred earlier this month, said Sakchai Thongwatthana, chairman of a group of Muang Ake residents calling itself "Khon Rak Muang Ake Club".

About 2,000 families living in seven housing projects in the same estate that covers 7.2 sq km have been forced to live with about two meters of foul-smelling and rubbish-strewn floodwater, he said yesterday.

A large number of residents had not moved out to an evacuation shelter because they were worried about looting, so they had to stay on even though the electricity supply is out, Mr Sakchai said.

Given the size of the area and the average depth of the floodwater, it was estimated that Muang Ake now held about 14.2 million cubic meters and if with a draining capacity of 1 million cu/m of water per day it would take two months for the estate to dry out, he said.

The residents were now relying on very limited boat services provided by the military, whereas the fares of boat services offered by private operators were unreasonably expensive, he said.

The local administration had not made an appearance since the transfer of the former governor, who had been working hard to help the flood victims before his move to an inactive post at the Interior Ministry, while the new governor has not made any of his flood relief plans known to the locals so far, Mr Sakchai said.

The presence of the 27km barrier of so-called "big bags" of sand that is aimed at slowing down the flood flow into Bangkok and protecting the inner city has frustrated the Muang Ake residents.

They blamed the flood barrier for delaying the flow of the floodwater out of their community, Mr Sakchai said, citing the flood flow data revealed by the Energy for Environment Center of the Sirindhorn International Environmental Park.

Clinton to Philippines in US Asia drive

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton headed Monday to the Philippines on a trip that will also include Thailand as the United States steps up efforts to reassure Asian allies of its staying power.

The visit comes a day before President Barack Obama leaves for another longtime ally, Australia, on the heels of playing host to Asian leaders in Hawaii for a summit that moved forward on an ambitious Pacific trade pact.

Obama and Clinton will head at the end of the week to an East Asia Summit in Bali, hoping to show an active role in a forum where some countries earlier sought to exclude the United States.

Clinton was expected to hold talks Wednesday with Philippine President Benigno Aquino and sign a formal declaration that looks to lay out a path for future relations between Manila and its former colonial power.

Amid concern in several Asian countries about China's growing clout, Clinton said the United States was "updating" relationships with its five treaty-bound regional allies -- Australia, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand.

"These five alliances are the fulcrum for our efforts in the Asia-Pacific," Clinton said in a speech last week at the East-West Center in Honolulu.

"They leverage our regional presence and enhance our regional leadership at a time of evolving security challenges," she said.

Clinton and Obama have vowed to put a new focus on the Asia-Pacific region, saying that the United States wants to help build the emerging institutions of the fast-growing region which is vital both for the US economy and security.

Despite looming budget cuts, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta recently pledged that Asia would be the military's priority as he visited Japan, South Korea and emerging US ally Indonesia.

Clinton said that the United States wanted to ensure that its alliances enjoy political support and that its defense cooperation with each country was enough for "deterring provocation."

"We want our alliances to be nimble and adaptive so they can continue to deliver results," she said.

Admiral Robert Willard, head of the US Pacific Command, also stressed that the five treaty alliances "form in many ways the basis for security in the region."

"One of our endeavors is to improve those alliances and strengthen those alliances along the way," Willard told reporters in Honolulu.

The Philippines has accused the Chinese military of aggressive acts in Philippine-claimed areas, including firing on Filipino fishermen, laying buoys and harassing an oil exploration vessel.

Zenia Rodriguez, head of the political science office at the University of Santo Tomas in Manila, said that Clinton's trip was timely in light of the tensions in the South China Sea, including over the Spratly islands.

"When you face China in the Spratlys, the most the Philippines can do is lean towards a stronger nation, which in our case is the US," Rodriguez said.

While US policymakers have been upbeat about the Philippines under Aquino, they have been more concerned over Thailand after an extended period of political chaos in the kingdom.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, the sister of coup-ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, came to power only in August and has come under intense pressure as she tackles deadly floods that have threatened the capital Bangkok.

Clinton said she would offer new flood aid to Thailand, whose powerful military initially did not request the assistance of a US aircraft carrier that was near Thai waters.

Flood cuts agricultural GDP

Thailand's agricultural gross domestic product is expected to grow less than one per cent on the back of the country's worst flooding in half a century, Office of Agricultural Economics secretary-general Apichart Jongskul said Tuesday.

Mr Apichart said the initial growth target was three to four per cent.

Total damage to the agriculture sector would be at least 72 billion baht, he said.

Flood closes six public parks

The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration has closed six public parks which have been inundated by the flood, Public Parks Office director Juree Chanthornsap said on Tuesday.

They are Vachira Benjathat and Chatuchak parks in Chatuchak district, Rommani Thung Sikan park in Don Muang district, Keela Ram-Intra park in Bang Khen district, Thawi Wanarom park in Thawi Watthana district, and Suan Luang Phra Ram 8 in Bang Phlat district.

Mrs Juree said the parks would be cleaned up and renovated after the flood has receded.

Thai economy under water: A serious supply chain shock

Since the start of October, Thailand has been experiencing its worst floods in half a century. The economic concerns have hightened as major industrial estates have also been inundated. 


With the exception of Samut Prakan and Rayong, seven major industrial estates have been affected by the floods thus far. The situation remains fragile, and a few factors bear watching, including the flood threat to inner and central Bangkok, the commercial heart of Thailand.

The current flood crisis has created a major supply shock for the country, with economic devastation being felt in the key manufacturing, agricultural and tourism sectors.

The foremost impact is in the manufacturing sector. We all know that key manufacturing bases are concentrated in Bangkok and adjacent areas such as Pathum Thani, Samut Sakhon, Samut Prakan, Ayutthaya, Chachoengsao, Chon Buri and Rayong. These industrial areas have all been affected by the floods.

Specifically, the province with the largest manufacturing base is Ayutthaya, where manufacturing (6.1 per cent of Thailand's gross domestic product) has been severely affected.

So far seven industrial estates (including Rojana industrial park, Saha Rattana Nakhon industrial estate, Hi-Tech industrial estate and Bang Pa-In industrial estate) have been forced to shut down over the past few weeks.

Japanese investment makes up the bulk of the operations in these estates and most specialise in auto parts and electronics.

Because many companies are auto parts suppliers, the flooding has caused supply-chain disruptions and shutdowns for auto producers in other parts of Thailand (including the eastern seaboard) even though they are less, or not at all, affected by the floods.

Anecdotal, manufacturers have stopped operations since early October and such shutdowns have been extended.

The Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand estimates that affected industrial estates in Ayutthaya may take 3-5 months or more to fully return to normal operations.

The agriculture sector is also badly hit. This is severely affecting the livelihood of Thais living in the central rural areas.

The northern and central parts of Thailand are key agricultural centres, cumulatively accounting for 46 per cent of the country's agricultural GDP output.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives recently reported that 10 million rai of cultivated land is so far damaged, of which 8 million rai is rice paddy.

Main-crop paddy production was expected to reach 25 million tonnes this year, but this could now be cut by 6-7 million tonnes.

As a comparison, Thailand produced about 30 million tonnes of rice and exported about 9 million tonnes in 2010. A production loss of 6-7 million tonnes would be equivalent to about 22 per cent of total annual rice production.

The effect on inflation is likely to be two-fold: from food price increases, such as for rice, due to production losses; and from food price increases due to hoarding. Rice constitutes about 1.8 per cent of weight in the CPI basket.

Local rice traders have estimated that rice prices could rise by 20-25 per cent because of the floods and the government's rice mortgage scheme. A 20-25 per cent increase in rice prices alone could add between 0.4-0.5 percentage points to headline CPI in 2011, all else equal.

The flood crisis has also affected Thailand's tourism sector. Among the top tourism areas in Thailand are Bangkok, Hua Hin, Phuket, Krabi, Chiang Mai, Koh Samui and Pattaya, to name but a few. The fourth quarter cool, dry season is typically the peak tourist season.

With areas like Ayutthaya fully inundated and Bangkok also facing a flood threat, tourist arrivals are likely to be temporarily hampered in the last quarter of 2011.

Anecdotally, we can all see that there have already been tourist booking cancellations. Tourism revenue makes up about 5-6 per cent of GDP.

Sensitivity analysis would show that a decline of 10-30 per cent in tourist arrivals for one to three months would shave between 0.2-0.6 percentage points from GDP growth.

Looking ahead, there are certain things we all should be watching out for:

1. The magnitude of the flood impact on Bangkok, which accounts for 24 per cent of Thailand's GDP. So far, only the western and eastern parts of the capital have been affected, sparing the major commercial area of central Bangkok.

2. Whether the floods will affect other industrial bases such as Rayong on the eastern seaboard, which has so far been spared.

3. Policy measures to alleviate flood conditions and the pace at which the flood waters recede. This will affect how quickly the repair work can start and industrial operations can normalize.

Indeed, major research houses have estimated that the flood impact could take 1.0-1.5 percentage points off Thailand's pre-flood crisis 2011 GDP growth forecast of 4 per cent, given the plant shutdowns, agricultural losses, and tourism impact.

The flood crisis since September will mean that the fourth quarter of 2011 will be hard hit, with expected growth in the range of -1.0 per cent to 1.1 per cent year-on-year.

 Furthermore, the short-term price impact from agricultural losses and hoarding means inflation may rise to the vicinity of 5 per cent by year's end.

Floods affect interest rates but the baht holds up for now

Floodwater may breach dykes, overwhelm homes and inconvenience millions, but financial markets must move on, particularly after a month as volatile as October.

It is still impossible to predict the ultimate extent of the floods. But one thing is certain - over the past month, estimates of the potential damage have been revised up almost continually, as almost every day another industrial estate, town or district goes under water.

This is having a big impact on interest rate expectations. At its monetary policy meeting in late August, the Bank of Thailand hiked its overnight benchmark interest rate by 0.25 per cent to 3.50 per cent, amidst inflation worries. Consensus was for the rate to rise to 4 per cent by mid-2012.

By the latest policy meeting in mid-October, the atmosphere had shifted. Worries over growth dominated the agenda, and the central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged. 

There are also growing calls to reduce interest rates, to help support recovery.

Bond yields have been falling, and are now below the overnight rate for tenors up to 10 years. This is partly due to low bond supply, but in any case, a one-year yield at 3.30 per cent indicates that investors are pricing in future rate cuts.

So far, the floods have had less of an impact on baht exchange rates. The currency market is being driven by two global issues - Europe's debt problems and US recession risks.

Both those issues seemed to improve over the last month, boosting risk appetite. As a result, Asian currencies, including the baht, have strengthened versus the dollar.

Europe's debt crisis remains a mess, but things are a bit better than a month ago. The summit meeting in late October showed some progress on restructuring Greek debts, recapitalising banks and increasing the European rescue fund. 

Greece temporarily shocked everyone by proposing a public referendum on Europe, but then shelved the plans after a big outcry. Nevertheless, it is worrying how politics (in any one of many countries) can easily affect sentiment on European prospects.

Meanwhile, fears on whether the United States is entering a recession have abated somewhat. Key economic figures (such as change in payrolls, retail sales and manufacturing activity) have been better than expected

Recent corporate earnings reports have also been generally sound. That helped revive risk appetite. The S&P 500 stock index increased by 10.8 per cent in October, its best monthly performance since December 1991.

In any case, there are downside risks ahead for the baht. The situations in Europe and the US improved last month, but both remain fragile. It is easy to envisage bad news that could cause sentiment to shift.

Also, the floods may yet have a negative impact on the baht. The disruptions to industrial activity should cause Thai exports to fall significantly in the fourth quarter. 

Reconstruction efforts could lead to greater import requirements. Continued flooding in Bangkok might also hit tourist arrivals, just as the peak season begins in December. All these would lead to lower demand for baht in currency markets.

Parson Singha is chief markets strategist in the Global Markets Department of HSBC Thailand.

Thailand: Is this really no place for female leaders?


Bangkok's worst flooding in decades seems to have floated a lot of garbage - both the physical and verbal type.

Some superstitious minds are blaming the country's first female prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, for bringing bad luck to the country, echoing last month's YouTube clip which showed a controversial monk proclaiming women unfit to lead a country.

To justify his claim, Phra Kasem, clutching the Thai translation of the Tipitaka, read a verse attributed to the Buddha from the Kandina Jataka: 

"I admonish men who, with arrow as weapon, strongly releasing it; I admonish the lands ruled by women; Indeed, beings under the sway of women are admonished by the wise."

To play on the insult, he read another short Anguttara Nikaya passage where, according to the Thai translation, the disciple Ananda questioned the Buddha "why women neither sit in the assembly, nor undertake business, nor go out of town" with the Buddha's reply that they were "angry, envious and weak in wisdom".

The video clip incensed many fair-minded Thais. Buddhist academic Surapot Taweesak pointed out that one cannot just look up a random passage in the Tipitaka as a definitive answer to any social issue.

 He recommended that Thai monks educate themselves in the political and social reality of the day before applying the teachings of the Buddha, because while some parts like the Four Noble Truths or Dependent Co-origination are meant to be universal, others are context-specific morality teachings given to a different place (India) and time (around 2,600 years ago).

This author absolutely agrees that the Tipitaka is not a crystal ball or fanciful rambling that can be conjured up to explain everything. The Buddha clearly stated that what he taught represented only a handful of leaves within the forest.

But as the Tipitaka passages cited are purported to be the Buddha's opinion of women, the author believes it's important to question the context in which the Buddha - who recognised women's equal potential for enlightenment - might have said such uncharacteristically misogynistic things - if he indeed said them. 

With a rudimentary knowledge of Pali, I would like to offer a contextual reading of the cited passages in this two-part article.

First of all, it's important to keep in mind that, from the very beginning, the Buddhist Canon resulted from a collective effort of an all-male monks' assembly, reporting from memory what they personally had heard from the Buddha. 

Predictably, what they heard would be concerned less with secular affairs than with spiritual matters. Sexual desire, as the main stumbling block for a celibate life, would often come up, and in such an all-male (supposedly heterosexual) circle, the word "woman" - their common denominator of sexual desire - could easily come to be shorthand for desire itself; something to be indignant at.

However, the Buddha must have given similar teachings to female "monks". And in that context one wouldn't be surprised if he had used the word "men" to personify the sufferings of sexual desire. 

Indeed, had the Tipitaka's line of the transmission included female reciters from the start down to the present time, we might have records of "men" representing revoltingness.

This Kandina Jataka was told by the Buddha to a monk feeling tempted to return to household life and his wife's attention and pampering. What was being admonished, therefore, is actually not women per se but lust. In such places, one must read "lust for" before "women".

 The third line of the verse, as an example, should be understood as: "beings under the sway of (lust for) women are admonished by the wise".

The first line in the Thai translation is problematic. "I admonish men who, with arrows as weapon, release them in full strength." This doesn't hang together grammatically or semantically with the rest. 

Considering that the story is about a mountain stag killed by a hunter after following a doe into a human village, a better translation for the original Pali should be, "cursed be the arrow (of desire) strongly piercing man".

Here, the Buddha was obviously comparing the metaphorical dart of desire piercing the monk's heart to the hunter's arrow that killed the stag.

The same sense also is conveyed by the second line. As both the text (verse) and context (story) are about men under the influence of lust, the word itthi (generally meaning "woman") is better translated with its second meaning of "wife". 

Thus the line should read, "cursed be the land overrun by the wife", referring to any male leader who fails to keep his wife from interfering in the affairs of the state.

Again, the regressing monk who allowed his household desires to jeopardise his spiritual advancement was compared by the Buddha to a ruler who let his personal relationships interfere with his just rule. 

If female leaders had been the norm of the day, one would easily expect the verse to be put as "cursed be the land overrun by the husband".

Now we turn to the second passage. Although Pali belongs to the Indo-European language family and its grammar bears astonishing similarities to Continental languages, it differs in one important aspect: the lack of indefinite and definite articles (a/an/the). 

As a result, it depends on the context whether the key word matugamo refers to women in general or specific individuals.

The Thai language also lacks articles. To clarify, translators normally would insert words like "a", "some", "that", "those" or "certain". Unfortunately, no such words are given here, leaving the passage as vague as in the original Pali. 

Without understanding of Pali grammar, a prejudiced mind is prone to read it as a blanket condemnation pigeonholing half of the world's 7 billion people to menial jobs.

But there's a strong hint that the sutta is not a generalisation of women. It is worth noting that the passage doesn't contain generalising words like sabbe ("all"). 

Even more importantly, it hinges on a crucial part completely oblivious to Phra Kasem. Both Ananda's question and the Buddha's answer centred around the conditionality of hetu ("reason") and paccaya ("condition"). 

Therefore, one should read the passage as concerning only some women - or men, for that matter - who are angry, jealous and weak as unfit to carry out those mentioned tasks, but by no means rules out the rest who aren't.

This, the author argues, is the way to read the sutta without turning the Buddha into a hypocrite. This will be discussed in the second part tomorrow.