EU concern at Thailand lese majeste jail term

The EU has expressed "deep concern" at Thailand's jailing of a 61-year-old man for sending text messages deemed offensive to the royal family.

The texts were sent to an aide of Abhisit Vejjajiva, the former Thai prime minister

Europe's delegation in Thailand urged the authorities to make sure they upheld the rule of law.

Ampon Tangnoppakul was convicted of sending four messages last year to an official working for then Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

He denies the claims and says he does not know how to send a text.

The conviction sparked outrage among rights groups, with Amnesty International describing Ampon as a political prisoner.

The EU said in a statement that it wanted to reiterate the importance of "the rule of law, democracy and the respect for human rights".

"The EU urges the Thai authorities to ensure that the rule of law is applied in a non-discriminatory and proportional manner consistent with upholding basic human rights, including freedom of expression," the statement said.

Ampon was charged under the Computer Crimes Act and lese majeste law, which is designed to protect the monarchy.

Critics say both laws have been increasingly politicized and are curbing free speech in Thailand.

There have been widespread allegations that the law is being misused to settles scores and silence debate.

A number of foreigners have been convicted of the offense in recent years, but they are often quickly pardoned and deported from the country.

Some Thai academics and writers have fled the country for fear of being denounced.

In an ongoing high-profile case, the webmaster of a liberal news website is currently on trial accused of failing to remove allegedly offensive comments posted by readers quickly enough.

Appeal launched for flood pics

A host of photographers, both professional and amateur, captured the mayhem caused in various parts of the country by the ongoing floods, the most destructive in living memory. 

While some of these images have already been widely circulated online and in the media, many remarkable shots may have yet to be uploaded or developed.

A photo of the flooded Wat Chaiwattanaram taken by HRH Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn.

Last week, the Ministry of Culture issued an open invitation to members of the public to submit personal photos taken of the floods for possible display at an exhibition to be staged from December 8 to 30 on the 9th floor of Bangkok Art and Culture Centre (BACC), 

and from December 11 to 15 at the Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya Tourism Complex in the Old City Hall in Ayutthaya.

Entitled Water+Empathy 2011, the show is being organised in tandem with the Royal Photographic Society of Thailand, the BACC, Bangkok Metropolitan Administration and the Tourism Authority of Thailand. 

Its aim is three-fold: to amass a pictorial record of the national disaster; to highlight the indomitable spirit of Thai people as they coped with the floods and extended a helping hand to others who needed it;

and to raise funds to allow the Fine Arts Department to restore sites of historic significance which have been inundated.

HRH Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn will be contributing some pictures she took while touring flooded areas. Photographs chosen for the exhibition will also be displayed online (visit www.bigcamera.co.th/Water+Empathy2011)

Winning after the storm: Learnings from other disasters

As the flood crisis continues to dominate headlines here in Thailand, forward-looking companies are on the move to seek growth opportunities that will emerge in post-crisis business.

In this article, we examine reactions and post-crisis strategies of winning companies that have successfully weathered other disasters.

There are lessons to be learned from these strategies that can be adopted by companies in Thailand.

The current flood crisis has been called Thailand's worst, in terms of both water volume and the number of people affected.

Half of the country has been affected. Over 600 fatalities have been reported to date. Views of just how bad it is vary. Some estimate that the cost of direct damage is over 150 billion Baht ($5 billion). Other executives believe this estimate could be significantly understated.

By comparison, in the case of the crisis from the tsunami in Japan, direct damage resulting from the destruction of highways and buildings was around $120 billion to $300 billion. 

Secondary damage from rolling electricity blackouts, declines in production due to disrupted supply chains, and revenue losses has been estimated to add another $50 billion to $180 billion. The cost of more than 12,000 lives is immeasurable.

By comparison, the current Thai flood crisis is less extreme. But it is complex in its own way with potentially significant ripple effects on almost every socioeconomic class and multiple industries.

The impact of the flood on the Thai economy is likely to be both negative and positive. In the former, we have the immediate impact on production disruption, property loss, and insurance & banking losses. However, moving forward the clean-up may actually have stimulatory effects for two reasons.

Firstly, demand for lower skilled labour and all the compensation paid are likely to have an immediate stimulatory impact. Secondly, investments made in infrastructure and potential changes to trade tariffs/policies to encourage foreign investors to stay may offer the potential to change the growth trajectory of the economy in the long run.

The question then is how companies _ big and small _ can take advantage of the situation.

We have observed that in the wake of Japan's tsunami disaster, forward-looking companies in Japan moved meticulously through their emergency backup plans and returned to business quickly.

At the same time, they actively sought growth opportunities presented by the post-crisis business environment. Several common themes emerged:

- Create a separate disaster-management team Managers will be fully occupied addressing day-to-day business operations in the aftermath of the crisis. 

So it is critical that companies set up a separate disaster-management team _ similar to a project management office _ to focus on business recovery and communications. 

Communicating frequently clearly and often to all stakeholders, employees and customers is also a critical role that this team should play. Companies in Thailand can get ahead by setting up such team while waiting for water to subside.

- Segment businesses and products according to risk and opportunity Of course, some lines of business will be negatively affected by the flood. But the impact on others will be neutral, or even positive. 

For each business line, companies should develop an action plan that is based on both risk and future post-crisis outlook. This will allow companies to think through potential negative impacts and identify how to best seize opportunities.

Rethink current activities It is critical that companies analyse how the disaster may change demand and consumption patterns, or otherwise alter the business landscape. 

This analysis must be done holistically, by looking not only at the immediate supply chain but also several steps away from the immediate goods. 

For example, automakers should consider the supply and price of steel post-flood, given that there will likely be an increase in construction activities to rebuild and recover affected areas.

Identify and position to capture business opportunities In addition to taking defensive measures, smart companies also went on the offensive and sought new opportunities for growth. 

Certain businesses _ for example, those focusing on infrastructure investment or consumer products that address home, convenience, or safety concerns _ can expect to expand in the wake of a disaster. 

On the consumer side, Japanese consumers modified their daily routines in response to the increased stress they faced. They engaged more frequently in activities such as "cocooning" at home and reading. 

They also scaled back on other activities _ most notably, making purchases related to travel, real estate, automobiles, and other durable goods. 

Thinking through probable changes to consumer behaviour will likely identify new business opportunities.

When companies seize these opportunities, more winners will emerge after the storm.

In our next few articles, we will discuss how government and businesses can respond to the crisis. We will cover concrete ideas for how companies can turn the crisis into real business opportunities, as well as potential government responses _ short- and long-term measures.

UTCC: Q1 growth hinges on post-flood measures

Experts believe the government should revamp the economy in next year's first quarter to avoid any severe effects on employment figures.

Thanavath Phonvichai, director of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce's Economic and Business Forecasting Center, yesterday said the country's economic growth will depend largely on the success of government rehabilitation measures.

If they fail, unemployment could reach 1.7%, he said.

Risk factors next year will include the fragile global economic situation stemming from the EU financial crisis, while the US and Asia may not expand at a satisfactory rate.

Dr Thanavath urged the government to help industries by alleviating economic burdens such as the oil prices and high interest rates.

He believes the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee will cut the key policy rate by 50 basis points to revive the economy by the end of the first quarter.

A centre survey of business entrepreneurs showed 74.4% of more than 700 respondents found their performances in the fourth quarter have been slower than in the same period last year in terms of both revenue and profits while costs have been rising.

The main factor affecting their businesses is the flood crisis, followed by oil prices and the global economy.

The centre reaffirmed its estimate that flood damage will shave 3.1 to 3.4 percentage points or almost 350 billion baht off the gross domestic product.

Damage will be 200 billion baht to the industrial sector, 80 billion to agriculture, 25 billion to tourism, 30 billion to trading and 6.7 billion to other sectors including transport and services.

However, taking into account damage of 500-700 billion baht to public and private assets and 100-200 billion baht to exports, the total estimate comes in at 1-1.2 trillion baht.

Sauwanee Thairungroj, the university's vice-president for research, said the government should also cover education expenses, as people will need money for home repairs after the floodwater recedes.

A recent survey showed home repairs would take up 23% of victims' household budgets. But the respondents said they need 80% of their budget for necessary items.

KBank eyes 25% of B150bn flood-recovery business loans

Kasikornbank (KBank) projects corporate loan demand for post-flood business recovery will amount to 150 billion baht next year, with itself lending 25% of the total.

The strong economic momentum will continue to provide greater business opportunities for corporate customers and financial services next year, says Mr Vasin. 

Vasin Vanichvoranun, an executive vice-president, said seven sectors are expected to seek major financial support for rehabilitation, including automobiles and auto parts, electronics and property.

So far 1,420 of KBank's large corporate customers affected by the crisis have asked for additional credit lines worth a combined 15 billion baht.

Mr Vasin said flood-hit customers will not increase non-performing loans thanks to KBank's relief package offerings, plus most are financially stable enough to continue servicing their debts.

The debt-to-equity ratio of the flood-affected customers is relatively low, in the range of 1.3 to 1.6 times.

As well, wholesale clients are expected to require 1.2 trillion baht next year for business recovery and domestic and international expansion, as well as debt repayment and refinancing.

KBank expects its share from all of these markets to increase to 25% from 22% now.

To this end, it has set a 2012 corporate loan growth target of 9% for next year based on next year's 4.3% growth projection for Thailand's gross domestic product.

"The strong economic momentum will continue to provide greater business opportunities for corporate customers and the bank's financial services next year, both locally and internationally," said Mr Vasin.

KBank, the country's third-largest institution by assets, has set a goal of nine merger and acquisition deals, 75 long-term loan agreements, 21 bond offering deals, five initial public offerings and 43 foreign business expansion contracts next year.

This will help to contribute to revenue growth of 20% from wholesale banking and 22% from fee-based income.

For the first nine months of this year, KBank booked corporate loan growth of 10% for a combined loan portfolio worth 353 billion baht.

Court finishes hearing Nonthaburi flood case

The Administrative Court yesterday finished its hearing on the case in which people from Nonthaburi complained about the negative impacts on their lives of flood relief measures.

The court will deliver its verdict to the complainants by phone or fax at a date yet to be determined.

The residents' group filed the complaint with the court last Wednesday against the government's Flood Relief Operations Command (Froc) and Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA).

They said the Froc's decision to place flood barriers along Highway 340 and Kanchanaphisek Road to protect inner Bangkok and the BMA's refusal to open sluice gates to receive floodwater from Nonthaburi caused them hardship because the barriers and sluice gates prevented floodwater drainage.

Lead complainant Tossiri Poonnuan, 50, said although the floods were easing in Nonthaburi, her complaint was aimed at prompting authorities to solve floods for the general public without discriminating between people in different areas.

Chatchawal Panyawatheenant, deputy director-general of the Irrigation Department, who represented the Froc in the hearing yesterday, said big sandbags were placed only one some parts of Highway 340 and there were other channels to drain floodwater from Nonthaburi.

Feline feuding and feral fulminating

So much has been written about our Great Flood, and I'm sure you've seen, read about or watched it all  from the so-called culprits, the high drama and questionable media handling to talk of an ever-widening social divide and have been left feeling flabbergasted with, perhaps, a mouldy house into the bargain.

I really have nothing else to add to coverage of the water saga. It just feels like we're living in some bad American disaster movie, except that there are no real heroes to save the day. 

But during this time of dire need, so many interesting characters have popped up here and there and I've often been left scratching my head over some fine example of nonsensical human behaviour. 

Oh yes, I could try to be all Zen and pretend to understand why volunteers steal items donated for flood relief or why boat owners charge exorbitant prices. 

But, no, I refuse to sound above all that when I know, deep down in my heart, that behaviour like that is just not okay.

There are, after all, such things as straight-up right and wrong. To me, that much is clear.

Still, I have been rather entertained by certain individuals who've come under the spotlight during the course of the flooding. 

Dr Plodprasop Suraswadi quickly comes to mind for his antics and verbal vomit ("the opponent party was seen releasing crocodiles to scare people"). 

As does Bangkok's governor for the slowness of his reactions _ for the slowness of everything he did, in fact.

But nothing perplexed me more than the catfight between Karun "Keng" Hosakul, Phue Thai MP for Don Muang, and Mallika Boonmeetrakul, deputy spokesperson for the Democrat Party. 

As one of the most discussed and  I would go as far as to say  hated players on the current political scene, Karun is no stranger to newspaper front pages, and the social-media world is full of expressions of dismay about his antics plus rude insults and fervent wishes for his imminent demise.

It so happened that Karun and Mallika had a run-in during some flood-related event covered by the media. Choice words were exchanged, and the episode culminated with Mallika allegedly kicking Karun after he allegedly butted her out of his way. 

Recently, Karun appeared on the popular Woody Kerd Ma Kui talk show where he flatly denied various accounts of the encounter with Mallika and made excuses for rogue conduct he's been accused of, including kicking a fellow MP and tearing down a "big bag" barrier. 

Asked about the run-in with Mallika, he responded by suggesting that she might simply be trying to make herself famous by attaching her name to his.

That sparked a string of angry, misspelled tweets from Mallika and perhaps led to a few broken TV sets, too, as enraged viewers punched their screens out.

A colleague of mine thinks that if it were a rom-com flick, Karun and Mallika would eventually end up together. 

I couldn't help but get excited over the prospect of this pair as star-crossed lovers. Romeo-Karun and Juliet-Mallika, thou shalt not perish in the name of love. Or...

But what strikes me most about this back-and-forth is that Mallika has garnered a lot of support for her aggressive stance. So why do we condone such ugly retorts? 

While I do not care much for Mr Keng, I still think that both he and Mallika should be chastised and made to stand in separate corners. 

Mallika is a political figure very much in the public eye, but now she's foolishly trying to secure the closure of various social-network and video-sharing sites. 

She needs to mull over the childishness of her reactions and perhaps learn how to string proper sentences together on Twitter, as well. 

It was gutsy of her to deal out one blow after another to that man, considering Karun's reputation for strong-arm tactics, but  please  show a little more class! There's no need to stoop to someone else's level  or kick his behind in public.

As for Mr Karun, there have been too many stories about his violent conduct to recount them all here. He did get elected as an MP, though. It's hard for me to comprehend how someone with such a disturbing record could so easily waltz into Parliament. 

Is he such a good representative for Don Muang that his constituents are willing to overlook the accusations of spousal abuse and involvement in shady activity? 

An extra-marital affair never mind domestic violence  has been enough to bring down many politicians in other parts of the world. 

Is this the message we want to send out to our young people: that it's all right to be abusive and violent once you've accumulated enough money and power?

If we want cleaner, better functioning politicians who can improve our lives, then maybe we should start looking more closely at their character, moral code and ability to control their temper  in addition to elements like policies and past work record. 

If we stop electing ignorant thugs and supporting rambling idiots, then we might have a shot at the good life we've dreamed about for so long.

Here's hoping that Mr Karun doesn't come after me in a speeding jet ski with his horde of handlers, and that Ms Mallika will spare me from her mean, linguistically challenged tweets and internet witchhunt. 

I've got a mouldy house and a man-made bruised heart, and that's already more than I can handle.

Lum Luk Ka sluice gate row hots up Sukhumbhand says locals must obey law

Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra has refused to negotiate with Pathum Thani residents after they raised the Khlong Phraya Suren sluice gate to 1.5 metres again without permission.

The Lam Luk Ka sluice gate, with stagnant water on this side, floods running off on the other.

MR Sukhumbhand yesterday said he would negotiate only after the sluice gate was lowered back to 1m. He stressed that the law must be upheld in place of mob rule.

The governor made the statement after red shirt leaders in Pathum Thani demanded to meet him for talks on opening the sluice gate. 

The red shirt leaders included Sa-ngiam Samranrat, also a staff member of the Flood Relief Operations Command (Froc) and a political-office holder at the Prime Minister's Office, Wutthipong Kotthammakhun and Sornsak Malai.

The red shirt leaders led more than 200 residents from Pathum Thani's Lum Luk Ka district to raise the sluice gate to 1.5m on Monday night after the gate was lowered to 1m on the orders of the Bangkok governor.

On Sunday night, a group of about 30 people, led by Pol Maj Sa-ngiam, cited an order by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and the Froc director Pracha Promnok, to lift the gate to 1.5m, prompting the governor to order the gate lowered. 

MR Sukhumbhand said he was unhappy that someone in authority at the PM's Office had tampered with the sluice gate without permission.

He was referred to Pol Maj Sa-ngiam, who led the Pathum Thani residents to lift the gate on the two occasions.

The governor said he would not bow to any pressure and would file a lawsuit against Pol Maj Sa-ngiam.

City Hall spokesman Wasan Meewong said the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) would ask the Froc to try to control Pol Maj Sa-ngiam who led residents to lift the sluice gate.

Mr Wasan said City Hall would take strict measures to prevent the unauthorised lifting of sluice gates in Bangkok and raise the issue with the Froc to restrain their staff from doing so.

Mr Wasan said that Pol Maj Sa-ngiam is a staff member at the Froc and he has already repeated the unauthorised action with the gate twice.

If the Froc fails to control its staff, then this would encourage similar mob rule or copycat actions in other areas, Mr Wasan said.

However, Pol Maj Sa-ngiam said he had acted on behalf of people who had been affected by floods, and denied suggestions by City Hall that he had tried to misuse his authority to raise the sluice gate.

He said it was clear that the order by the prime minister had instructed the Bangkok governor to open the gate when the need arose to ease the suffering of flood victims.

Previously, Mr Wasan insisted that it was not an order but only a Froc request letter asking for the gate to be raised. City Hall had already turned down the request, saying that complying with it would cause flooding in many areas of the capital.

Royal Irrigation Department former deputy director-general Weera Wongsangnak, who chairs Froc's committee on water management, 

yesterday said that the group led by Pol Maj Sa-ngiam was not associated with either the Froc or the area representative who met with Pol Gen Pracha earlier .

The director of Thailand's National Disaster Warning Centre Somsak Khaosuwan yesterday said the overall situation in Bangkok is returning to normal and the Froc would continue with the dismantling of big bag barriers.

He said about 140 big bag sandbags along the train tracks in Don Muang were removed on Monday and more were being taken away every day.

Giant backlog nixes Toyota expo orders Repair services will be featured instead

Toyota will not take any orders at the Thailand International Motor Expo, as the huge backlog from before the flood crisis has prompted the company to drop all sales and marketing activities.

Honda, whose Ayutthaya plant has been completely inundated, will display its cars built locally and accept orders despite a pre-flood backlog for 37,000 units, mostly for Brio, Jazz and City models as yet undelivered.

The expo will be held at Impact Muang Thong Thani from Dec 1-12.

Toyota's plant was not directly hit by the flooding but still had to suspend production due to a supply disruption after the deluge overwhelmed parts factories in Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani districts.

It will offer car maintenance activities at this year's motor expo to help its customers with flood-damaged vehicles.

"We've decided to skip regular sales and focus on teaching customers how to take care of their cars after the floods. 

Our mechanics will be on hand throughout the event to give advice and demonstrate how to fix and repair damage to Toyota vehicles. 

This is crucial, as our customers are now very much concerned about their cars' post-flood condition and safety," said Vudhigorn Suriyachantananont, a senior vice-president of Toyota Motor Thailand (TMT).

Toyota staff will provide information about dealers nationwide for future contact by potential customers.

A senior TMT official said the huge backlog has discouraged the company from accepting any more orders.

Toyota's three auto plants in Samut Prakan and Chachoengsao provinces restarted production on Nov 21 after being suspended from mid-October.

The source declined to give an exact number for the backlog but said the customers will have to wait only another month or two for their passenger car delivery, three months for pickup trucks and six months for pickup passenger vehicles.

A senior executive at Honda Automobile (Thailand) said despite having been amid the worst of the flooding, all of its models will be showcased at the expo and new orders will be taken.

"Our staff will be there to explain our current situation to customers placing an order," said the executive.

Honda still cannot estimate when it can clear up its 37,000 back orders, as there remains no clear outlook for the reopening of its swamped Ayutthaya plant.

It is insisting that it be allowed to import foreign-built automobiles from outside Asean tax-free to compensate for production losses at the Ayutthaya plant.

It says its situation is diffferent from other carmakers in that its plant has been completely devastated, and it cannot produce any cars.

As well, the car imports, if permitted, would allow Honda dealers nationwide to continue their operations.

The plant remains inaccessible to Honda staff, thus preventing them from surveying the extent of the damage.

However, an industry observer estimated next year's second quarter for the plant's reopening.

Private investment to get a shot in the arm next year

The Finance Ministry is preparing an economic stimulus package to heal the flood-ravaged economy, more than doubling private investment to 15% of gross domestic product (GDP) from 7% now, says the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO).

"The finance minister wants 2012 to be the 'Year of Investment', and to this end attractive investment promotion measures will be offered as a package," said director-general Somchai Sujjapongse.

He said the department is studying efficient ways to promote investment by Thai companies domestically and abroad.

The ministry is also seeking to waive import duties for auto parts and vehicles in a bid to ease the burden of flooding on the hardest-hit industry.

The tax reform process will also be continued to accommodate investment, while small and medium-sized enterprises will be provided with productivity improvement packages.

Dr Somchai admitted that the lack of a long-term water management plan could undermine the investment privileges but expressed confidence the government's working groups will come up with one soon.

As well, the Board of Investment and the Finance Ministry are continuing to amend their investment privilege criteria by shifting the focus to strategic industries rather than broad promotions.

The flood-affected investors will continue to enjoy their current privileges for another 1-2 years beyond the normal seven years.

Dr Somchai said Thailand will never get out of its "middle-income trap" unless the investment value is on a par with the savings amount.

Like other economic think tanks, the FPO has cut its GDP forecast to between 1.7% and 2% from a pre-crisis estimate of 4.5%.

However, it is more optimistic about next year, forecasting 5% GDP growth on an aggressive injection of funds that will result in a deficit of as much as 400 billion baht.

Thailand will have room for an additional 400 billion baht, not including the new public investment programme that will allow the country to spend more, Dr Somchai added.

Thai Rath Columnistmae Look Chan

Why can't Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra hold a daily meeting with officials from the Flood Relief Operations Command (Froc)?

Since the flood crisis began in July, the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) and Froc have pursued their own anti-flood strategies.

While Froc is in charge of the overall flood relief operation, the BMA is responsible for protecting the inner area of Bangkok.

This overlapping of authority between the two agencies is aggravating the hardship of people living outside Bangkok's floodwalls. 

Even if the Froc wants to drain more floodwaters from the suburbs through the city's canals, it cannot do so without the consent of Governor Sukhumbhand.

This problem can be fixed if the governor and the Froc director meet for close consultations every day. Water management experts from both sides must also join the meeting.

Forced to live with polluted floodwaters for over two months, thousands of people living outside the floodwalls have lost their patience. A quick solution must be found before this crisis explodes.

Reaching out for flood relief

Skal Club of Hua Hin and Cha-am, in cooperation with the Rotary Club of Royal Hua Hin, presents "Reach Out, Rebuild and Restore", a flood charity fundraising concert at the Grand Ballroom of Hyatt Regency Hua Hin on Saturday at 6:30pm.

Aspiring Thai singer Sathida Prompiriya and Canadian musician Paul Bankes will perform during the ‘‘Reach Out, Rebuild and Restore’’ charity concert at Hyatt Regency Hua Hin on Saturday at 6:30pm.

The concert will feature Sathida "Nan" Prompiriya, the first Thai winner of five gold medals at the World Championships of Performing Arts 2011, with Canadian Paul Bankes on guitar.

The proceeds from this fundraising concert will go directly towards the rehabilitation of Wat Kong-sa Primary School in Ayutthaya, which was severely affected by flooding.

Skal is a network of local clubs with international associations. The overwhelming majority of members join Skal to network with their peers in their community. The club has more than 10,000 members across the spectrum of the travel and tourism industry.

Tickets cost 1,500 baht, including pre-show cocktail buffet and wine.

Flood losses force Dhipaya to miss profit goal

SET-listed Dhipaya Insurance expects to fall short of its net profit target this year because of flood losses, but remains upbeat to achieve its revenue target of 14 billion baht.

"Despite the flood, our performance based on written premiums displayed up to 40% growth and we expect to reach 14 billion baht as set," said Somporn Suebthawilkul, the company's managing director.

For the first nine months of the year, the company reported written premiums worth 8.04 billion baht, a rise of 36% from the same period last year, with 1.96 billion from motor insurance, 2.67 billion from miscellaneous business, 794.75 million from fire coverage, 165.15 million from marine and cargo, and 2.43 billion baht from personal accident.

However, the company reported a profit drop to 437.38 million baht for the period compared to 591.96 million in the first nine months of 2010.

The profit drop was mainly due to a new regulation of the Office of the Insurance Commission requiring insurers set aside a minimum reserve for claims incurred despite those claims not yet being reported through actuarial method.

Dhipaya estimates insurance losses of 6 billion baht from the flood, with 4 billion from the seven flooded industrial estates and 2 billion from motor insurance and others. 

Net loss to the company is expected to be about 300 million baht, as a majority of the insurance premiums were reinsured.

It set a net profit target earlier this year of over 700 million baht, which Mr Somporn admitted Dhipaya could not meet. Last year net profit was 572.88 million baht, slightly higher than the 547.88 million it recorded in 2009.

"Despite insurance losses and the profit dip, the company's financial status remains strong," he said. "We see no need to raise new capital to pay out the claims."

Shares of Dhipaya (TIP) on the Stock Exchange of Thailand yesterday closed at 20.10 baht, up 10 satang, on trade worth 755,000 baht.

PTT's Pailin sees flood crisis as a leadership opportunity Government should study the flood cause

"Krisis" in Greek denotes points of change. But as conditions change, positives can be taken from a crisis, including the ongoing flood in Thailand, says Pailin Chuchottaworn, PTT's president & CEO.

Dr Pailin won CNBC’s 10th Asia Business Leaders Award for Talent Management last week because of his work at IRPC.

Over 600 people have lost their lives, with the Central Plains and seven industrial estates swamped. Foreign investors, especially Japan, are upset about a lack of water management plans and prevention, and the government set up two commissions to work on broad strategy and restoring confidence.

Strong reassuring leadership during a crisis can determine whether the response will be a success or failure, said Dr Pailin.

"The flood impact is severe and far-reaching. It changed our mindset about whether Thailand is safe from disasters. I believe an opportunity arises three to six months after every crisis happens. But we must grab that opportunity."

Public discontent against the government's handling of the earthquake and the nuclear crisis forced Naoto Kan to resign as Japan's prime minister, and criticism of George Bush's handling of aid and repair during the Hurricane Katrina aftermath was a factor for voters in the next federal elections.

In Indonesia, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's stewardship in rebuilding Aceh after the tsunami in 2005 garnered him international praise and led to a second term as president in 2009.

One of the government's top priorities after the flood should be to understand its cause and impact, similar to what Japan did in the aftermath of the Tohoku earthquake in March, he said. 

Japanese officials dispatched experts to examine buildings destroyed by the powerful quake to determine better construction methods and land hit by the tsunami to understand the quake's impact.

"We need to understand what caused the flood in order to prevent it," Dr Pailin said.

To win a staff's confidence and ensure they work toward a common goal, a leader needs comprehensive knowledge, patience and foresight, he added.

Dr Pailin won CNBC's 10th Asia Business Leaders Award for Talent Management last week, because as president of IRPC since 2009 he turned around its balance sheet from 18 billion baht in losses in 2008 to 6 billion profit in 2010.

He said three to six months after IRPC posted huge losses he persuaded the staff it needed to change.

"IRPC at that time was similar to a big ship close to a reef, about to collide with hidden rocks. In order to avoid them, the business needed to separate into smaller pieces to follow their own objectives, similar to smaller boats weaving around the rocks."

Dr Pailin was chosen for president of PTT in September 2011. While he wants PTT to be included in the Forbes 100, the global financial crisis changed the corporate focus to sustainability rather than rapid growth.

"PTT's strategy is to have a long value chain and strong internal management," he said. "Being large is important for an oil company in increasing business leverage, such as when we bid. But size should be the effect, not the cause."

Little justice in show trial

The most important international trial of our time began last week in Cambodia. It adjourned after just two days, and will resume in its halting way again next week. 

The three top surviving men of the most murderous regime in the history of Southeast Asia were in the dock. Nuon Chea, Ieng Sary and Khieu Samphan are too feeble to be able to feel the legal consequence of their actions that the tribunal will eventually pass. 

The question is whether the trial of these three old men can truly bring closure to a country denied justice for 36 years.

The enormity of the crimes of the Khmer Rouge have long been known, but never widely addressed or, in many cases, acknowledged. 

The joint Cambodian-international tribunal which called the three Khmer Rouge survivors to the dock last week, took decades to establish a trial system which should have taken a few months. 

The Cambodian government was the chief stumbling block, particularly Prime Minister Hun Sen. Foreign governments, including Thailand, were sometimes reluctant and never enthusiastic about establishing the special courts to try the men and women who slaughtered or actively encouraged the deaths of at least 2 million and probably more of their fellow Cambodians: at least a third of the country's population was decimated.

Civilians crowded the tribunal last week, most of them survivors of a three-year, nine-month regime now known as the Killing Fields. 

Many wept, some rushed from the court as the Cambodian, then the British prosecutors, outlined the case against the old men who will be found guilty of crimes against humanity. 

There were no new charges, no revelations of the horrors of the 1975-1979 regime. The crimes of that era, however, still have the power to shock, and the pain on the faces of the survivors was obvious.

Because Mr Hun Sen delayed even this small tribunal for so long, most Cambodians today have no memory of the days of the killings fields. 

But the three men facing the tribunal were among the tiny handful of hardliner, xenophobic communists who were responsible for the fact that when the Khmer Rouge fell to a Vietnamese invasion in January 1979, every living Cambodian knew one or more victims killed by the regime.

The leader, Pol Pot, died in his bed in a remote province. But Nuon Chea, "Brother No. 2" to Pol Pot, was the top policymaker. Ieng Sary, 86 and just as enfeebled, was the foreign minister and unapologetic face of the "Ongka" to the world, including the United Nations. 

Khieu Samphan, 80 and still able to walk without aid, is the intellectual and probably psychotic author of the Khmer Rouge policy of emptying cities, killing doctors and destroying money.

If the three men live long enough to be judged guilty and given a sentence of life imprisonment, that will be the end of it. 

Mr Hun Sen said that if there were to be more trials, there could be civil war, meaning that he fears inquiries of just how close he was to the top as a Khmer Rouge military commander during the black years. If the Cambodian people ever are to get justice, it is now or never.

To their credit, many of the court officials and tireless Cambodian and foreign workers have labored for decades to see at least some Khmer Rouge in the dock. 

The trial of a functionary, chief torturer Duch, 68, was completed in July 2010. He was sentenced to 35 years in jail.

Overall, both international and local law have failed the Cambodians. They deserve more light to be shed on their most terrible times.

Bias, by any other name, still blinds you to the facts

A question for you: during the flood emergency, which leader wasted valuable time on useless staged photo-ops, seeking political benefit rather than trying to combat the disaster?

Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra (right) politely listens to Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. The two were at the Department of Drainage and Sewerage in Bangkok on Nov 4, for a briefing on floodwater drainage plans.

A) Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, or

B) Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra.

Now that the floods are beginning to recede and _ hopefully _ tempers to ease, we should be able to have the discussion.

Currently, politics in Thailand and in the United States are highly polarised, even vicious. That condition is made worse by what behavioural scientists call "my-side bias". 

Part of this phenomenon should be familiar to any follower of Manchester United, Liverpool or any of the great Premier League clubs, the strong will for "my side" to win and the despair and rationalisation if it does not.

But, my-side bias goes well beyond just rooting for your team. It is all too human to seize on information or reject it depending on how it fits into your preconceived notions. 

The bias has long been with us. At the same time Siddhartha Gautama was developing Buddhist teachings, the Greek historian Thucydides observed that "it is a habit of mankind... to use sovereign reason to thrust aside what they do not fancy".

Since the 1960s, scientists have demonstrated that virtually everyone has a bias for facts confirming their existing beliefs and against any contrary evidence. 

In financial circles, this is called "confirmation bias". Pessimists who are convinced that the end is near counsel you to buy gold. Optimists say now is the time to get into the next big boom. 

Neither has much interest in the data cited by the other. Confirmation bias only makes individual investors go broke.

But, in politics, my-side bias can sunder entire societies. Not everyone is biased to the same degree, but science has shown that we all work with some bias and, as among many in the US and Thailand, that bias now appears to be growing more extreme.

In the US, some 45% of Republicans believe that Barack Obama (a Democrat) was born overseas and thus ineligible to be president. This isn't for want of information. The press has reported extensively on the issue, pointing to contemporary birth notices in Hawaiian newspapers and to his birth certificate, now available online.

But facts don't matter to the "birthers". It is just that they don't like Mr Obama (as a Democrat, as an African American, as a liberal, etc) and they are not prepared to listen to any positive information.

Though there are many important principles in play in Thai politics, earlier pronouncements on yellow-shirt TV and later speeches from red-shirt stages also were also littered with untruths every bit as ridiculous as Mr Obama being a foreigner in his own country.

Yet, both yellow and red propaganda was eagerly lapped up by people prepared to believe anything about those they opposed.

My-side bias can lead people to very ugly actions. During Republican presidential debates, the audience _ opposed to Mr Obama's healthcare reforms _ cheered the prospect that a person who fell ill without insurance should be left to die.

Texas Governor Rick Perry received a wild round of applause when a questioner pointed out he had authorised a record number of executions and that some of the prisoners might have been innocent. 

When a gay soldier called in a question from an Iraq war zone, many in the audience booed. Fortunately, a few tried to shush the booers.

I would hope that the same reaction would greet those who brazenly claim that Thai soldiers who spend their days in the water trying to help their fellow citizens solely as a cynical bid for power.

My-side bias has little to do with intelligence. Indeed, experiments in the US show that those endowed with agile brains can be just as stubbornly blind to facts. 

Witness the continuing denial of global warming among groups of stubborn scientists despite masses of evidence (2001-2010 was the hottest decade on record, followed by 1991-2000). 

Theses scientists discount or ignore data that contradicts their existing belief and eagerly embrace any information that supports their view (a few of the world's glaciers may be expanding, data is conflicting on ocean temperatures and the like.)

And thus it is in Thailand. Scholars and experts have written in these pages advancing A) as the answer to the question I posed above. 

Others have written just as firmly in support of B). Particularly amusing are Thai analysts who have written from abroad offering purportedly authoritative analyses of what is going on here.

 Most have obviously picked "facts" they want to believe from like-minded friends or on Facebook, and have ignored everything contrary to their belief.

And now to the answer, who was just posing and who was effective during the crisis?

The answer is that any leader is elected to lead. Part of leadership is coordinating as effectively as possible the many different agencies and bureaucrats who each have their own agendas. Part of leadership is getting reliable information to the public so people can make their own best decisions.

But, part of leadership is also motivating the public and the workers who toil at the necessary tasks. An army does not hire a general to fire a gun, but to plan and to coordinate and motivate the troops. Similarly, a society doesn't elect a leader to really fill sandbags or to cook for those in distress.

So, from the same set of facts, Thais can passionately argue both sides of the question: one leader was doing their best in hard circumstances and the other was grandstanding.

The real answer should come from a sober analysis of effective leadership, of coordinating agencies and assuring accurate information. "I don't like his/her look or his/her background" should not be part of it.

But, as humans, many of us will chose sides. The simple truth is that people feel before they think. If those feelings are strong enough, they will happily set facts aside and carry on with their heart, not their head.

To turn down the political volume in Thailand and in the United States, let me propose a maxim for each of us:Try not to trust everything you believe.

Researchers design steady-handed robot for brain surgery

Neurosurgeons may one day get help in operating rooms from a robot with movements 10 times steadier than the human hand to perform delicate brain surgeries, the EU said Monday.

Surgeons operate on a patient in July 2011 in Baghdad. Neurosurgeons may one day get help in operating rooms from a robot with movements 10 times steadier than the human hand to perform delicate brain surgeries, the EU said Monday.

The European Commission touted the EU-funded ROBOCAST project as a breakthrough in robotic neurosurgery that could in future help treat tumors, epilepsy, Parkinson's disease and Tourette syndrome.

Developped by British, German, Italian and Israeli researchers, the robotic hand, guided by a surgeon, has 13 types of movement compared to four available to human hands during minimally invasive surgery.

It even has "haptic feedback", or physical cues that allow surgeons to assess tissue and feel the amount of force applied during surgery, the European Commission said in reporting the EU-funded ROBOCAST project.

The robot has only been tested on dummies so far, performing keyhole neurosurgery, in which a probe enters a tiny hole in the skull to manipulate tissue or collect blood and other fluids.

"Robots can reduce surgeon's tremor tenfold, making them especially useful in protecting the delicate and important brain matter," the commission said.

The European Union, marking European Robotics Week, said it was funding a parallel project involving three robots to assist surgeons operating on patients who must stay away during neurosurgery.

The EU's executive Commission has already spent 400 million euros in around 100 robotics projects. Brussels says global demand for robot-related products was worth around 15.5 billion euros in 2010, including 3.0 billion in Europe.

SRT told to reclaim Chatuchak Minister refuses to bend in BMA contract battle

The Transport Ministry has insisted it wants the State Railway of Thailand to reclaim the rights to manage Chatuchak Weekend Market after its management contract with City Hall ends at the end of this year.

Transport Minister Sukumpol Suwanatat said he issued a clear policy to the SRT but he had not received a report about the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration's (BMA) move to renew its contract with market vendors without the consent of the SRT.

ACM Sukumpol was responding to Chatuchak market vendors who have complained about the confusion over contract renewals because the SRT and the BMA cannot agree on the contract to manage the market.

A group of vendors will go to Government House to submit a petition to Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra asking her to solve the problem.

The SRT last Friday posted a notice at the market to advise vendors who wanted to renew their contracts to submit documents to the SRT by the end of December.

The BMA had earlier advised vendors to renew their contracts by the end of December as well.

Vendors say both agencies have almost doubled the rental fees for contract renewals. More importantly, they are not sure which agency they should contact for the renewals.

Deputy Transport Minister Chatt Kuldiloke, who supervises the SRT, said the ministry wanted the SRT to manage the market by itself so it would have sufficient funds to partially compensate it for losses from managing the railway system.

It would be able to gain more income from the market than by letting the BMA manage the contracts.

Pol Lt Gen Chatt brushed aside the BMA's claim that the policy change not to renew contracts must be approved by the cabinet since the BMA's area lease contract was made under a cabinet resolution on Oct 24, 1979.

"That's too long ago," he said. "Over time, the BMA has received appropriate gains and compensation from moving the market from Sanam Luang to Chatuchak while the SRT is still in the red."

Between 300 and 400 vendors have contacted the SRT to renew their contracts.

Taweesak Suthiserm, SRT's asset management director, said the SRT had informed the BMA five years ago that the railway agency reserved its right to cancel lease contracts.

The SRT board earlier resolved that the lease contract value, if it is renewed, must not be less than 420 million baht a year with a 15% increase every five years.

The board required the BMA to renew contracts by Oct 31 this year.

However, he said, when the deadline was reached the BMA had not used that right.

"So we will send a letter to the BMA to return the area as soon as the contact is terminated," Mr Taweesak said.

Chatuchak Market director Arun Sricharoon questioned why the SRT was claiming rights over the market area despite the fact that the BMA's management contract has yet to be terminated.

He said the BMA governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra had sent a letter to the SRT on Oct 26 to negotiate the new rate of lease fees.

The BMA asked the SRT to charge the lease fee at Chatuchak market at the same rate with that of Aor Tor Kor market of 79.4 million baht per year with a 15% increase every five years.

The SRT did not accept or reject the proposal but instead announced it was reclaiming the right to the area.

The BMA insisted that any change to the contract policy must be approved by the cabinet first, he said.

Sukumpol denies claim of train plan irregularities

Transport Minister Sukumpol Suwanatat yesterday denied there were any irregularities in the electric train projects, saying this meant there was no need for an inquiry into the implementation of the projects.

ACM Sukumpol was responding to remarks by Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung, who linked the high-profile robbery of transport permanent secretary Supoj Saplom's home to alleged corruption in Bangkok electric train contracts under the previous Democrat-led government.

The transport minister said there was no evidence to substantiate Mr Chalerm's claims and said that an investigation into the projects was not necessary.

At the National Anti-Corruption Commission, questions about all that cash.

ACM Sukumpol on Monday signed an order establishing an inquiry panel to probe Mr Supoj's alleged unusual wealth.

The panel, headed by PM's Office permanent secretary Thongthong Chandrangsu, will focus on Mr Supoj's alleged unusual wealth and will attempt to trace the source of the money and the exact amount of money he had, ACM Sukumpol said.

Mr Supoj was transferred to an inactive post in the prime minister's office following the Nov 12 robbery of his home.

The suspected burglars earlier told police they took 200 million baht in cash from the house, according to reports, but had seen much more there.

ACM Sukumpol said implementation of the electric train projects was transparent. He would go ahead with those projects despite Mr Chalerm's allegations.

Mr Chalerm earlier told parliament that the cash kept at Mr Supoj's home had come from the Purple Line and Red Line electric railway projects in Bangkok.

He also told reporters that the Nov 12 robbery of Mr Supoj's home was the result of a conflict relating to the construction of the projects.

But ACM Sukumpol said Mr Chalerm's allegations were merely aimed at attacking the previous government and in his opinion there was insufficient evidence to back up his claims.

He expressed confidence that the ministry's dust-free roads project was transparent, saying he had asked the chiefs of the Supoj-helmed Rural Roads and Highways Department, which is in charge of the project, to explain the project and found no graft involved.

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva yesterday said he was not worried about Mr Chalerm's threat to dig up alleged irregularities in the electric rail projects during the Democrat-led government.

Mr Abhisit said he would not mind if Mr Chalerm wanted to expose alleged graft in those projects. Everyone must work in a straightforward manner and be ready to come under scrutiny.

Meanwhile, Metropolitan Police Bureau commander Winai Thongsong said police were stepping up the hunt for the gang leader and two other suspects in the Supoj robbery still at large.

Weerasak Chualee, 36, the alleged leader, has reportedly fled to Laos and the two other suspects are believed to be in hiding along the Thai-Burmese border, Pol Lt Gen Winai said.

Eight of the 11 people involved in the robbery have been arrested, he said.

Rehabilitation to cost B755bn National priorities 'may need adjusting'

A new World Bank report estimates public spending on post-flood rehabilitation in Thailand could reach 235 billion baht by 2014, but experts say this would still not exceed the country's public debt ceiling.

"The government can accommodate this flood-related damage and loss with the existing public debt ceiling. Whether it decides to raise funds from foreign or domestic organisations is up to the discretion of the government, but scope remains for borrowing,

" Kirida Bhaopichitr, a senior economist at the bank, said of the preliminary assessment of post-flood recovery rehabilitation.

Thailand's public debt now stands at 40.2% of gross domestic product (GDP), while the debt ceiling stands at 60% or 600 billion baht.

The private sector is expected to need most of that at 520 billion baht and the public sector the other 235 billion.

The production sector will require the lion's share of the money, with the finance and banking sub-sector taking most of that, followed by the manufacturing sub-sector and water-resources management.

"The state can accommodate these projects alongside existing plans. However, implementation may involve some reprioritisation as to what would be best for the country's recovery," said Annette Dixon, the World Bank's country director for Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Thailand and Burma.

"Given that the scale of this disaster is unprecedented in terms of the provinces it hit, the number of lives affected and impacts on the economic infrastructure of the country, it would be only prudent for the government to focus on what is most needed for recovery and to enable the country to remain competitive in the future."

Total damage and losses are estimated at about about 1.36 trillion baht _ 1.28 trillion or 94% in private damage and 81.4 billion in damage to the public sector.

The World Bank estimates Thailand's GDP growth at 4% next year and 5.6% in 2013.

"The country can also take this as an opportunity to 'build back better' _ not just building back but doing it in such a sustainable way as to enable it to withstand volatility in climate change in the future as well," said Ms Dixon.

The assessment report is preliminary. A revised version will be submitted to the government at the end of next month.

Meanwhile, HSBC predicts V-shaped growth for the Thai economy after the floodwater recedes _ 4.5% next year after a year-on-year contraction of 5% in this year's fourth quarter.

Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research, said the research house has cut this year's GDP growth to 1.7% from 3.9% projected earlier.

The key engine will be government spending after the crisis, with a 1% increase expected in state expenditures to help boost the country's real GDP by 0.2 percentage points in the following quarter, he said.

Dr Neumann expects the Bank of Thailand will cut its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points next month from 3.5% now while maintaining the one-day repurchase rate to ease economic pressure.

Yingluck rides out censure ANALYSIS: PM resilient, but political landscape will change as banned politicians re-enter scene

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra appears not to be in any great danger despite the public's perception that her government's Flood Relief Operations Command (Froc) has failed to handle the consequences of the flood crisis.

Chaeng Watthana canal 

People row boats along swamped Chaeng Watthana Soi 14 in Bang Khen district yesterday while a long wooden walkway is built as floodwater remain high.

Despite the censure debate on the government's alleged mismanagement of the floods on Sunday, observers say Ms Yingluck still enjoys the strong support of her voter base and her elder brother, ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and she should continue to stay in power.

Justice Minister Pracha Promnok, as head of the Froc, survived a vote of no-confidence yesterday after a censure debate on Sunday which focused on the Froc's alleged mishandling of the flood response and corruption related to the procurement of relief supplies for flood victims.

Altogether, 273 MPs from the Pheu Thai and government coalition parties voted in favour of the justice minister, while 188 MPs, mainly from the Democrat Party, the Bhumjaithai Party and a smattering of small parties cast a vote of no-confidence against him. Five MPs abstained from voting and 15 did not cast votes.

Prime Minister Yingluck has repeatedly said she is willing to work for the public good, but when the country was facing its worst flood disaster in decades, she handed the job of dealing with the crisis to Pol Col Pracha instead of taking charge of flood management efforts herself. This has led people to believe she was trying to skate around the problem.

Businesses and investigators feel that the government has allowed politics to interfere with the country's administration, which has hampered efforts to coordinate flood relief and, in fact, worsened the crisis.

During the censure debate, MPs from the government went so far as to claim that the floods were part of a plot by the previous Democrat Party-led government to rock the stability of the present government.

Even though flood-weary people have given a thumbs down to the Froc's crisis management, Ms Yingluck and the Pheu Thai-led government still have the strong backing of about 15 million voters who gave them a mandate to run the country during the July 3 election.

But, the flood crisis has affected the confidence of foreign investors who are threatening to relocate their production bases to other countries because they are concerned the country could be hit by the massive floods again next year as long as the government is unable live up to its flood management responsibilities.

Moreover, many insurance companies have signalled that they will review their flood underwriting and may increase insurance premiums.

This prompted the government to send former deputy prime minister Virabongsa Ramangura, chairman of the government-installed Strategic Committee for Reconstruction and Future Development, to travel to meet executives of leading insurance businesses in London in a bid to restore confidence in Thailand.

The issue of bringing Thaksin back to Thailand is regarded as another political risk that could land the government in hot water.

Analysts say that Thaksin, the de facto leader of Pheu Thai, wants to return to Thailand to reclaim his power rather than operate behind the scenes through his proxies as he is now doing.

Politics are also expected to heat up in the middle of next year when the five-year political ban against the 111 former Thai Rak Thai executives is lifted.

The ban on the executives will expire at the end of May and the seasoned politicians are set to return to the political landscape, likely intensifying the struggle for political power.

But, Ms Yingluck will be able to keep her seat in spite of strong forces against her, given that the Pheu Thai Party commands a majority in the House, and she has the support of Thaksin as well as more than 15 million voters.