Coping with climate change

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon saw the extent of Thailand's flood problem for himself this week. Now he intends to use it as a case study to press world leaders to commit to climate change initiatives at the "make or break" global summit in South Africa later this month. 

That should strike an emotional chord with the delegates in Durban because some of them held a preparatory workshop here in April and observed a moment's silence to honour the 53 Thais who had just died in the floods in the South. They had no idea of the horror that was to come.

Although the Bangkok climate change meeting failed to provide a breakthrough, the two-week South African summit must deliver constructive results, if only to justify its carbon footprint. 

Failure cannot be an option because the expiration of the Kyoto Protocol next year means that time has nearly run out for any kind of comprehensive climate deal to replace it. 

Global leaders must rise to the occasion because taxpayers cannot afford to sponsor any more expensive talking shops at which they "agree to disagree".

Unfortunately, the success rate of international conferences which pit the interests of the developing and developed worlds against each other is disturbingly low.The world is a selfish place, with national interests regularly being given precedence over global concerns. 

The dilemma is how to get these to converge. Remember that the historic Earth summit in Rio in June 1992 did show that it was possible. It successfully tackled the environmental, economic and social challenges facing the international community at that time. 

Its sequel, 10 years later in Johannesburg, was supposed to find ways of achieving sustainable development to combat poverty. Instead it was a resounding flop. What we hope to see in Durban is the kind of positive attitude that leads to successful compromise.

Some basic reform and new blood is needed. The delegates who always arrive at these conferences with closed minds and wallow in negativity should be told to stay at home. 

Keeping them company should be the time-wasters who talk a lot but never commit to anything and those who see the trip as a junket, displaying more interest in local beaches, nightlife or shopping venues than the conference agenda. Screening the delegates beforehand might help. 

And who wants to listen to the same lengthy speeches, wake-up calls and tired position papers which say nothing new?

Great things were expected of the Copenhagen climate change summit two years ago and what a disappointment that turned out to be. 

Plenty of sound and fury after a huge build-up, and then it all fizzled out in a clash of vested interests and bruised egos. 

The Cancun summit last year "glimpsed new horizons", to use the words of the host, Mexican President Felipe Calderon. 

That summit coined the term "ecocide" and, at the last minute, established the Green Climate Fund intended to raise and disburse US$100 billion a year from 2020, to help poor nations overcome the impact of climate change.

One way to obtain worthwhile progress at major international meetings is in quiet discussions between delegates meeting in corridors, coffee shops or venues outside the main conference halls. 

Another alternative would be greater use of video-conferencing and choosing locations that are less exotic than Bali, Barcelona, Poznan, Cancun and Durban to save money and avoid obvious distractions.

Mr Ban is right to call for a heightened sense of urgency. Climate change is not some vague future threat; it is a time-bomb that is already ticking.

Climate change 'key driver of extreme weather': UN

Man-made climate change has already boosted heatwaves and flood-provoking rainfall and is likely to contribute to future natural disasters, according to a report by UN scientists unveiled Friday.

But the toll from these extreme weather events will depend as much on the measures taken to protect populations and property as the violence of Nature's outbursts, it warned.

The report, released 10 days before climate talks in Durban, South Africa, is the UN's first comprehensive review of global warning's impact on weather extremes and how best to manage them.

"We can actually attribute the increase of hot days in the past few years to an increase in greenhouse gases," said Thomas Stocker, co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which published the report at a meeting in the Ugandan capital, Kampala.

"And it is virtually certain that increases in the frequency and magnitude of warm daily temperature extremes, and decreases in cold extremes, will occur in the 21st century," he said at a press conference.

"Heavy precipitation will become more frequent in many regions of the world," he added.

Heat and rain extremes under three carbon pollution scenarios -- ranging from a sharp reduction in emissions to business-as-usual -- were reviewed in the report.

All three increase along a similar trajectory up to 2050.

But towards the end of the century these pathways diverge dramatically, with far higher and more frequent heatwaves and rainfall peaks in a world saturated with greenhouse gases.

For the high-emission scenario -- the path the world is on now -- one-in-20-year heat peaks would occur every five years by about 2050, and every year or two by the end of the century. Precipitation extremes increase in a similar fashion, the report showed.

Qin Dahe, also an IPCC co-chair, said the panel was likewise "more confident" that climate change is boosting glacier retreat, a major concern for nations in Asia and South America dependent on glaciers for water.

But for other extreme weather events such as cyclones, scientists are still unable to pin down the impact of climate change, due to lack of data and the "inherent variability and variations in the climate system," Stocker said.

"Uncertainty cuts both ways. Events could be more severe and more frequent than projections suggest, or vice versa."

Some studies have suggested that warmer air and sea surface temperatures combined with greater moisture in the air will intensify tropical storms.

The 20-page document released Friday summarizes the conclusions of an underlying 800-page report, three years in the making, that reviews thousands of recent peer-reviewed scientific articles.

It was written by some 200 scientists, and approved this week by the 194-nation IPCC, which gathers government representatives as well as experts.

"It goes without saying that this [report] is yet another wake-up call," the European commissioner for climate action, Connie Hedegaard, said in a statement issued in Brussels.

"With all the knowledge and rational arguments in favor of urgent climate action, it is frustrating to see some governments do not show the political will to act."

"This report should leave governments in no doubt ... that climate change is, through its impact on extreme weather, already harming the lives and livelihoods of millions of people," said Bob Ward of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics.