Climate change 'key driver of extreme weather': UN

Man-made climate change has already boosted heatwaves and flood-provoking rainfall and is likely to contribute to future natural disasters, according to a report by UN scientists unveiled Friday.

But the toll from these extreme weather events will depend as much on the measures taken to protect populations and property as the violence of Nature's outbursts, it warned.

The report, released 10 days before climate talks in Durban, South Africa, is the UN's first comprehensive review of global warning's impact on weather extremes and how best to manage them.

"We can actually attribute the increase of hot days in the past few years to an increase in greenhouse gases," said Thomas Stocker, co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which published the report at a meeting in the Ugandan capital, Kampala.

"And it is virtually certain that increases in the frequency and magnitude of warm daily temperature extremes, and decreases in cold extremes, will occur in the 21st century," he said at a press conference.

"Heavy precipitation will become more frequent in many regions of the world," he added.

Heat and rain extremes under three carbon pollution scenarios -- ranging from a sharp reduction in emissions to business-as-usual -- were reviewed in the report.

All three increase along a similar trajectory up to 2050.

But towards the end of the century these pathways diverge dramatically, with far higher and more frequent heatwaves and rainfall peaks in a world saturated with greenhouse gases.

For the high-emission scenario -- the path the world is on now -- one-in-20-year heat peaks would occur every five years by about 2050, and every year or two by the end of the century. Precipitation extremes increase in a similar fashion, the report showed.

Qin Dahe, also an IPCC co-chair, said the panel was likewise "more confident" that climate change is boosting glacier retreat, a major concern for nations in Asia and South America dependent on glaciers for water.

But for other extreme weather events such as cyclones, scientists are still unable to pin down the impact of climate change, due to lack of data and the "inherent variability and variations in the climate system," Stocker said.

"Uncertainty cuts both ways. Events could be more severe and more frequent than projections suggest, or vice versa."

Some studies have suggested that warmer air and sea surface temperatures combined with greater moisture in the air will intensify tropical storms.

The 20-page document released Friday summarizes the conclusions of an underlying 800-page report, three years in the making, that reviews thousands of recent peer-reviewed scientific articles.

It was written by some 200 scientists, and approved this week by the 194-nation IPCC, which gathers government representatives as well as experts.

"It goes without saying that this [report] is yet another wake-up call," the European commissioner for climate action, Connie Hedegaard, said in a statement issued in Brussels.

"With all the knowledge and rational arguments in favor of urgent climate action, it is frustrating to see some governments do not show the political will to act."

"This report should leave governments in no doubt ... that climate change is, through its impact on extreme weather, already harming the lives and livelihoods of millions of people," said Bob Ward of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics.

Thai flood run-off threat to marine life

BANGKOK, November 16, 2011 (AFP) - As billions of cubic meters of water flow away from Thailand's devastating floods, experts and campaigners are warning that millions of sea creatures could be the next victims of the disaster.

Fish and shellfish farmers on the Gulf of Thailand coast have been warned by Thai authorities to protect their stocks as an estimated 10 billion cubic meters of water flow into the gulf, massively diluting the salt water.

Environmental campaigners are also warning that pollutants in the flood-waters from agriculture and industry could have a longer-term impact -- and may even enter the food chain.

Pramot Sojisuporn, Assistant Professor at the Department of Marine Science at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University said the huge volume of water pouring into the gulf over the next month will cause salt levels to drop significantly, affecting fish and other marine animals.

"The problem is the salinity in the upper Gulf of Thailand will be reduced as it receives the fresh water -- a lot of fresh water," he told AFP.

"The fresh water will not affect the fish (so badly) but it will affect organisms that stay in the mud, so for mussels, clams, they will die."

Pramot said the deluge of flood-waters could mean salt levels fall from the usual level of around 32 parts per thousand to around two parts per thousand, and in the inner gulf the water will be like fresh water.

"If the water is fresh for over two months they will die," he said.

Aquaculture -- farming fish, cockles, mussels, shrimps, oysters and clams -- is one of the mainstays of the economy on the gulf coast, and Pramot said the sector would be badly affected by the fall in salinity.

On Monday the Fisheries Department warned fish farmers in Samut Sakhorn province, south of Bangkok, and to the west of the capital, to harvest or move their animals and strengthen flood defenses on ponds.

Ply Pirom, toxic campaigner for environmental activist group Greenpeace, said the run-off would likely kill millions of sea organisms, dealing a heavy blow to fish and shellfish farmers -- and it could affect the food chain.

"For the short term we might see some dead fish along the coast of Gulf of Thailand because of the salinity," he said.

"Some smaller organisms are more sensitive to the change of water quality and salinity, so these small organisms would die eventually and this is the food for the large fish."

Ply said that while the sea would naturally restore its salinity, there were concerns of more lasting problems from flood run-off contaminated with pollutants from agriculture and industry.

"The concern is that the run-off water picks up chemicals and goes into the Gulf of Thailand, which is a closed system," he said explaining that as a result, the pollution could enter the food chain.

"The problem is that the Gulf of Thailand is quite a closed system. There is no continuous flow. It's surrounded by land. The flow of water is very slow."

A team from Chulalongkorn University will begin testing in the gulf next week in an effort to predict how the fresh water will disperse and how far it will spread.

Pramot said the northeast monsoon would most likely spread the waters to the west of the gulf, some southern provinces and possibly the popular beach resort of Hua Hin.

The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment will also set up around 50 points around the gulf to test water quality, and more in the estuary of the Chao Phraya, the main river that flows through Bangkok.

"We have to monitor a large volume, so we can work out how it will affect sea life, how long the effects will last and how long it will take to recover," a ministry official who asked not to be named said.

Until the research is completed it is difficult to predict how much of the gulf will be affected, or for how long, but one thing is clear -- come what may, the waters will reach the sea.

Thai Red Shirt prisoner group deliver letter to UN Secretary General

A Red Shirt prisoner support group led by trade unionist and political activist, Jittra Kotchadet, delivered a letter to the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, in Bangkok today. 

The group also staged a small protest of 200 people outside the Government House in Bangkok and called for the immediate release on bail of all lese majeste and political prisoners.

The group, who called themselves the Social Activists Network for Democracy, made this protest on the same day that rumours are swirling Bangkok that military-ousted former Thai PM, Thaksin Shinawatra, may receive a pardon for a conviction relating to what some consider to be a trumped up charge of corruption regarding a piece of land the former PM’s wife bought at market rates several years ago.

It is not yet clear if the ordinary Red Shirt members who helped return the present Pheu Thai government to power and who are held in Thai prisons will also be pardoned.

The letter is as follows

Bangkok, 16 November 2011

The Honorable Ban Ki-moon,

As you may be aware, in October 2011 in Geneva, Switzerland Thailand was the subject of a Universal Periodic Review at the United Nations Human Rights Council.

A number of recommendations flowed from this review, not least from Frank La Rue, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Freedom of Opinion and Expression. He urged Thailand to hold broad-based public consultations to amend section 112 of the penal code (Thailand’s infamous and draconian lese majeste law that imprisons people for up to 15 years for “defaming the monarchy”) and the 2007 Computer Crimes Act, with the objective to bring the country in compliance with its international human rights obligations.

Mr La Rue said -

“The threat of a long prison sentence and vagueness of what kinds of expression constitute defamation, insult, or threat to the monarchy, encourage self-censorship and stifle important debates on matters of public interest, thus putting in jeopardy the right to freedom of opinion and expression. This is exacerbated by the fact that the charges can be brought by private individuals and trials are often closed to the public.”

In addition to Mr. La Rue’s comments, the UK-based Freedom of Expression advocates, ARTICLE 19 had this to say -

“ARTICLE 19 would like to see the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rights and countries with close links to Thailand raise serious concerns with the Thai government on the misuse of the Lese Majeste law and the 2007 Computer Crime Act (CCA) which has been used as a default lese majeste legislation. 

The Thai government must open up dialogue with local civil society actors on the provisions of the lese majeste law and CCA and their use, and the government must amend these laws in accordance with Thailand’s obligations under its Constitution and the International Covenant of Civil and Political Rights.”

Following the review several countries backed the call for the 112 law to be reformed, including Brazil, Indonesia and Canada, while other nations such as the UK, France and Norway asked for a space to be opened up in Thai public discourse where the future of the law could be discussed.

At present it is impossible to make an accurate verification of the numbers of persons who are incarcerated in Thailand as a result of the application of the 112 law.

However, several people are awaiting trial and sentencing for charges relating to alleged breaches of 112. In 2010 alone, it was reported that the courts accepted 478 new cases of lese majeste, almost three times the record set the year before. Experts believe that the number of persons in custody for alleged violations of 112 is now in the hundreds.

These persons include

1) Mr. Amphon Tungnopphakul (61), a beloved grandfather of 5 who is being held on remand in inhumane and degrading conditions at the Bangkok Remand Prison. Mr. Tungnopphakul allegedly sent SMS messages that defamed the monarch to Somkriet Krongwattanasuk, a private secretary of former Prime Minister and leader of the Democrat Party, Abhisit Vejjajiva. 

The matter was reported to the police by Mr. Krongwattanasuk. Since his arrest Mr. Tungnopphakul was released for a short period on bail but the prosecutor demanded he be returned to prison and his bail be revoked. Mr. Tungnopphakul is also suffering from mouth cancer and we believe his release is of the utmost urgency on medical grounds alone.

2) Ms. Daranee Charnchoengsilpakul (48) aka Da Torpedo who is accused of lese majeste in connection with speeches she made at a political rally in 2008. Her original trial was held in camera and she was unable to properly contest the evidence against her. At this trial she received an 18year prison sentence. She then appealed against this verdict on the basis that her in camera trial breached her constitutional rights. 

The Appeal Court revoked the original verdict of the lower court and returned her petition to the Constitutional Court. While the Constitutional Court believed that the closed trial of Ms. Charnchoengsilpakul did not breach the constitution at present the original revocation by the Appeal Court stands. Daranee will be facing a retrial on the 15th December after her case was inexplicably postponed from October 17th. 

This postponement has also destroyed Ms. Charnchoengsilpakul’s chances of asking for a reduction of penalty, something which is usual at the time of the King’s birthday on 5th December. Furthermore, we consider the denial of bail for Ms. Charnchoengsilpakul to be evidence of unusual and special punishment as it is ordinary for Thai citizens who have had their original conviction overturned by the Appeal Court to be freed on bail. Ms. Charnchoengsilpakul has been in prison since July 22nd 2008. 

For most of this time she has also had to endure a very painful jaw infection for which she has not been given adequate medical care. At least one witness has reported that Ms. Charnchoengsilpakul has had to remove her own teeth in order to be able to eat. We call for the immediate release of Ms. Charnchoengsilpakul and the provision of and proper medical care to be afforded her.

3) Mr. Somyot Pruksakasemsuk (50) is a trade union activist and the editor of the “Voice of Thaksin” magazine. He is accused of lese majeste after publishing two articles in this magazine which were deemed to be of offence to the monarchy. Mr. Pruksakasemsuk has been denied bail because the court stated he was a threat to “national security.” 

He is being kept in inhumane and degrading conditions at the Sa Kaeo Prison. However, because the charges leveled against Mr. Pruksakasemsuk were made in four different places in Thailand he is being continually transported, chained and shackled, around the country in a small caged prison truck on journeys that can take up to 15hours. We believe this constitutes unusual and special punishment of Mr. Pruksakasemsuk and ask that he be released on bail and be allowed to make his own arrangements to face the charges as is normal practice in Thailand.

4) Mr. Joe Gordon (55) is a naturalised US citizen of Thai descent who was arrested on 24th May 2011. He is currently being held in inhumane and degrading conditions at the Bangkok Remand Prison awaiting sentencing after pleading guilty in a Bangkok court on 10th October 2011 to the charge of lese majeste. Before his guilty plea Mr. Gordon asserted his innocence on numerous occasions yet, after being repeatedly denied bail even though he had a painful medical condition for which proper treatment was denied, he changed his plea to guilty. 

We are concerned with the safety of Mr. Gordon’s conviction and believe he was subject to special and unusual punishment in order to evince a confession. Furthermore, the charge of lese majeste also relates to activity committed by Mr. Gordon while he was resident in the USA. Therefore the universal jurisdiction of Thailand’s lese majeste law has trumped Mr. Gordon’s constitutional rights as a US citizen. This is a deeply worrying development which has been further compounded by the lack of proper protest by Mr. Gordon’s US government representatives at the US Embassy in Bangkok.

As representatives of the Social Activists Network for Democracy (SAND) we would request that you thoroughly investigate the prison conditions of the four persons named above and make sure they are treated in an appropriate fashion and with full recourse to adequate medical care and to proper justice.

We would like to request that you call for the immediate release on bail of all lese majeste prisoners.

We would like to request you ask the Thai authorities to reveal the full number of lese majeste prisoners and those who have been accused of lese majeste.

We would also request that you read the full advice of Mr La Rue, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Freedom of Opinion and Expression, regarding Thailand’s use of both lese majeste and the 2007 Computer Crimes Act and act accordingly.

Yours faithfully,

Social Activists Network for Democracy (SAND)

Big bag flood barrier protest ends after authorities agree to speed up drainage

Protesters from flooded communities in Pathum Thani affected by the controversial big bag barrier agreed to disperse yesterday after authorities promised to speed up drainage from their waterlogged neighborhoods.

Pathum Thani governor Kachornsak Singtokul and relevant agencies met for talks with representatives from the protesters earlier yesterday.

It was agreed the governor will take their complaints to the Flood Relief Operation Command (Froc) and the government to find ways to expedite the draining of water from their communities.

Residents from Nakhon Rangsit municipality in Pathum Thani's Thanya Buri district are angry that their communities have been under water for more than a month and that no one has shown up to try and help them.

Irrigation Department authorities have also promised to repair three damaged water pumps from a total of 22 at Chulalongkorn sluice gate to pump water from Rangsit Prayurasak canal into the Chao Phraya River at full capacity.

Pakornpat Uatheptrakul, the protest leader, said Nakhon Rangsit municipality and local bodies lacked the capacity to cope with the massive deluge and to drain floodwater effectively.

He said the Froc must step in to ease the suffering of affected residents.

Previously, a group of angry residents from 20 housing estates in Don Muang removed sandbags from the big bag wall. The Froc and City Hall agreed to keep the gap in the barrier open to ease the suffering of affected residents.

They also agreed to widen the gap from six meters to 10 so that it could serve as a spillway to allow stagnant floodwater north of the flood wall to pass through and to function as a passage way for boat traffic in the area.

Froc spokesman Thongthong Chandrangsu said yesterday that workers and soldiers had already finished working on the big bag wall as had been agreed.

Half the 10m-wide gap in the barrier has now been repaired and will serve as a weir while the other half has been left open to allow boat traffic to pass through.

Mr Thongthong also said Don Muang residents affected by the big bag barrier were satisfied that their demands were met, although police have been sent to maintain order at the flood wall.

Air force commander, ACM Itthaporn Subhawong, yesterday said Don Mueang airport now looks like a reservoir as northern runoff on Vibhavadi Rangsit Road continues to surge onto airport land.

He said urgent steps must be taken to drain the area and at the same time ensure it will not affect local residents.

Meanwhile, Bangkok governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra yesterday said the floodwater levels on Kamphaeng Phet Road, Phahon Yothin Road and in Ratchadaphisek Soi 36 (Soi Suea Yai Uthit) have dropped. The water in some areas was down to between 15-20cm.

MR Sukhumbhand, who inspected the areas yesterday, said if there is no more northern runoff, areas in Chatuchak district and the five-way Lat Phrao intersection should be dry this weekend.

In eastern Bangkok, floodwater around the Bangchan and Lat Krabang industrial estates began to recede yesterday.

Lawyer goes to bat for deluge victims

Chulalongkorn University economist Narong Petprasert is leading unprecedented class lawsuits filed by flood-affected residents against the government. 

Speaking to King-oua Laohong, he does not think the government will have the money to settle the suit if it loses the legal battle. But, he says, the government cannot avoid the responsibility.

This action to be taken against the government is being politicized, is it not?

There's political pressure for sure. It's unavoidable. But that's fine because I've worked for the poor for a long time. I only want to seek fairness for people in need. My house is not flooded but my workplace is. 

My question is if one can't get to work on account of the floods, what kind of damage will that cause? The vendors can't hawk their goods. What will their lives be like? Who is taking care of them? 

In the very beginning, the Flood Relief Operations Command (Froc) and the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) insisted Bangkok would be spared the floods. Even if there was flooding, water would be ankle deep. 

Now the government is handing out 5,000 baht of compensation for each affected household]. Is that amount even worth the grievances we face? 

The citizens have never sued the government. If the government acts with recklessness and causes us damages, we must sue.

The government claims there have been excessive amounts of rainfall this year and that the natural disaster could not be predicted. Is this true?

Natural disasters are partly to blame. But the problem is the government never explained clearly about water management. 

Agencies such as the Royal Irrigation Department and Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand did not disseminate water information before the heavy floods reached the Central Plains provinces and eventually Bangkok.

The great floods resulted from heavy downpours from multiple tropical storms. This is beyond human control. But we cannot accept that the government did not tell us why, despite the rain, the storms and the huge amounts of water flowing into dams, it failed to manage water in those dams. 

Instead it let the problems degenerate into public calamities prompting people to flee left and right from their homes.

Originally you planned to represent in the lawsuits only residents outside of the flood walls. Is that right?

At first, we wanted to seek justice for people outside the flood walls such as those living along Khlong Sam Wa. They have made sacrifices. But when the news spread (about the suits), it turned out the damage to people was enormous and many were in despair.

The charges to be filed are quite a few and they have been brought up for discussion with the Lawyers Council of Thailand. The issues to consider are, example, who should be liable. The council is gathering details from experts and related agencies before drafting the suit.

The charges to be pressed are both civil and criminal.

(The citizens) have never sued the state for damages from acts of natural disasters before, have we?

Isn't it time we did? The lawsuit is unavoidable because the damage is far-reaching. Anyone joining the class suit can come on board. 

The government hasn't said anything about compensating people living in areas where floodwater has been retained. The government must offer them extra compensation.

When the government is negligent, the people have the right to sue it. The government knew all along there would be flooding but did not set off the alarm.

Does the government have enough to pay for the suits?

That's interesting. The damage occurs across the country. I don't know if the government has enough in its budget to cover it  if the government can't foot the bill (in the event it loses in court), is it possible that perhaps a bond could be issued to raise money to pay for damages or find financial sources so people can borrow? It will help.

Dutch offer assistance with water management

The Dutch Ambassador and a team of water management experts from The Netherlands met Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and the 10-strong Strategic Committee for Water Resources Management at Government House yesterday to discuss possible solutions to Thailand's flood crisis.

Committee member Dr Anond Snidwong na Ayudhaya revealed it was initially con?cluded that a water seminar be hosted early next year and Thai social experts such as Chulalongkorn University (CU) political scientist Surachai Wankaew be invited to join the water resources body.

Dutch Ambassador Johannes Andries Boer led a team of water management experts from the Netherlands to talk with Yingluck and rep?resentatives from the strategic committee such as Anond, Seri Supparathit and Veera Wongsaengnak.

Following the meeting, Anond said the Netherlands offered to organise a seminar for knowledge exchange with Thailand in the format of a "Water Fair" in February 2012. 

But Yingluck would like to organise it earlier, so she assigned Anond to discuss details further with the ambas?sador.

The Netherlands also offered to sign an MOU with Thailand to expand relations from aca?demic cooperation to possible joint investments. The premier initially accepted the offer but wanted to study the details fur?ther, he said.

Anond noted that things had to be done carefully as water management involved not only physical aspects but also bio-systems and social aspects.

"I believe water manage?ment isn't just bringing water engineers to talk but should consider the social conditions in Thailand, which has its specifics. Hence even the best social expert from the Netherlands may not under?stand [things here]," he said.

"We have to consider these points for society to set the direction together and prevent any conflict," he said.

Therefore Thailand would invite its social experts to work with the strategic committee, such as CU Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies director Surachai Wankaew, he said.

Anond said that as well as the offers discussed, the Netherlands also offered to make a flood analysis to try show the strong and weak points of Thailand's water man?agement system.

As several such studies were being carried out but had not crystallized yet, he said this could lead to the setting of clear terms of reference for a study, so that results would lead to practical guidelines that could be implemented.

He said a master plan being formulated by the strategic committee should be complet?ed in nine months - near the end of the 2012 fiscal year - so it could be implemented straight away in the next fiscal year.

Proposal for 200km floodway

Chulalongkorn plan would take 3 years, stretch from Chai Nat to Samut Prakan

Chulalongkorn University yesterday unveiled an ambitious super-express floodway model and 10 other measures to prevent flooding from devastating the Central region.

"If the government decides to use this plan and it passes an environmental impact assessment, construction is expected to be completed within three years," said Professor Thanawat Jarupongsakul, a lecturer at the Science Faculty's Unit for Disaster and Land Information Studies.

The main floodway would stretch for more than 200 kilometres from the Chai Nat-Pasak Canal in Chai Nat to Klong Dan in Samut Prakan, Thanawat told a press conference.

The floodway would have one-kilometre-wide buffers along each side and a bi-directional motorway six metres in height to prevent water from overflowing.

The buffers will be used to grow crops or house recreational parks before the rainy season comes, while the motorway will help with logistics.

Among the 11 proposed measures, particular attention was paid to collecting a direct flood tax from the owners of permanent structures located on natural floodways or in water-retention areas.

The tax rate for buildings in the zones, for example, would be 20 or 30 times higher than the rate elsewhere. The difference would be kept for future use as compensation for flood victims.

Also, the rapid expansion of urban areas in Bangkok's neighbouring provinces should be halted, otherwise more people will be affected by floods, Thanawat said.

According to the plan, satellite towns should be developed in Ratchaburi, Saraburi, Chachoengsao and Suphan Buri, with express trains linking them to Bangkok.

"Early disaster warning systems should also be improved so that people in the highest-risk areas can prepare for evacuation. This won't cause panic," he said, adding that flood-risk maps should be an essential element of city planning.

"In the past, we've only used white papers, and policymakers have decided where to build roads."

The government should control the use of groundwater in agricultural areas to prevent subsidence and should encourage farmers to raise plants or crops that can withstand extreme weather conditions, Thanawat said.

Natural "monkey-cheek" reservoirs that can hold floodwaters should be preserved in accordance with people's way of life in nearby communities, he said.

Laws should be amended to support disaster management and promote public participation, and an agency should be set up to battle disasters using hi-tech equipment based on research, according to the plan.

"I hope the government will consider our suggested measures and decide to put them in place soon. No one wants to experience any more disasters," he said.