Which way the tipping point?

The severe flooding of Bangkok and its suburbs has forced tens of thousands of the residents to flee over the past weeks. Many have returned to the villages of their birth, including some of my close friends.

Buddha statues are almost submerged at an amulet market near
the Chao Phraya River in Bangkok yesterday.

After years of living in the city, most have encountered some inconvenience, especially those whose villages are also flooded. They, however, seem to have taken things in stride.

Some have reported that although the flood is more severe compared to what they had experienced when they were growing up, the relatives they are staying with have encountered little interruption in their daily lives. In fact, some have found it quite amusing when they learned that their relatives would love to have the flood waters linger a while, for it has provided them with so much fun fishing!

The villagers have little problem with the flood because they live in old-style houses of the Chao Phraya floodplain _ built on stilts and readily equipped with row boats.

As destructive as the current flooding of Bangkok and the surrounding provinces is, I believe we should consider ourselves lucky, for it could have been much worse. The flood is caused mainly by the unusually large volume of water rushing down from the North. High tides may have added to the severity of the flood, but imagine what could have happened if Bangkok and these provinces were to be hit also by a strong storm that brings heavy rain as well as causing storm surges in the Gulf of Thailand?

Although the typhoon season is usually over by this time of year, a stray storm cannot be ruled out.

It should be apparent that the flood damage has been so great mainly because of the rapid expansion of roads, residential areas, industrial estates and commercial establishments over the past few decades. Many of them are built right on the existing floodways without providing adequate routes for water to conveniently flow through.

With the predicted increases in frequency and severity of storms and higher sea levels resulting from global warming, a more destructive flood will happen more sooner than later.

The central issue is: what to do between now and then, to reduce the level of destruction?

That we need to create adequate "water expressways" from, say, Pathum Thani to the sea, should not be disputed. And the urgency of the need requires that we launch brain-storming work forthwith.

Ideas have been floated about creating such expressways east and west of Bangkok, but no one seems to have suggested that a big one be built right through the heart of the city.

Impossible to engineer? I do not believe that.

Politically unwise? Maybe.

Too costly? Perhaps.

Ruling that idea out without a thorough study and full debate, however, would be more costly.

For decades, the idea of building satellite towns to take the pressure off Bangkok has been discussed and one almost came into fruition a few years ago.

The building of a satellite town in Saraburi-Nakhon Nayok area was aborted soon after inception because it was conceived for the wrong motive _ it was intended to benefit the politicians and their cronies, more than to provide true relief for Bangkok.

Despite that setback, the idea needs to be revived. Modern transportation such as bullet trains and digital communications should allow such a town, preferably towns, to be located outside the Chao Phraya floodplain.

Many have opined that this severe flood will bring a great benefit _ it provides a platform on which all sectors will come together and deal with the flooding issue once and for all.

Some, however, have expressed strong doubts and have pointed out that the ugliness of the current situation _ politicians trying to benefit, both personally and politically, from the disaster; the affected people waiting for handouts without lifting a finger to help themselves; the spread of blame on the revered institution _ all this will speed up the rush towards the opposite outcome, namely, a sharper social and political division that will end in a civil war.

Where do I stand on this issue?

Having experienced many aspects of the flood first-hand, I am not optimistic.