Monday 28 November 2011

High time for building a new capital

The last time I experienced a flood was in 1983. I remember playing in the flooded area as a child, as the water then was so clean you could even see small fish swimming. 

The flood was quite bad that year and lasted several months. I had to commute in a big van, watching people sailing away right in the middle of Bangkok.

Almost 30 years later, the heavy flood is again affecting a lot of lives. The flooding has resulted in more than 600 deaths, affecting at least 64 provinces and forcing hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate. 

This time my house on the west side of Bangkok is partially submerged. It took 14 hours to evacuate from there to the other house on the east side.

Given the recent climate change, how soon will there be another flood?

Flooding this year has taken a significant economic toll. Financial losses could be as high as one trillion baht. Consumer confidence is at the lowest in a decade. 

Thousands of factories and seven major industrial parks have been shut down, disrupting not only domestic production but also the global supply chain, hurting production of automobiles and electronics elsewhere.

There is no doubt economic growth next quarter will be severely affected, pulling down the 2011 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% from the previously estimated range of 3.5% to 4.0%, according to the National Economic and Social Development Board.

In the past, Bangkok was known as the "Venice of the East", with many canals linking parts of the city. Despite its charm, Bangkok is sinking every year because the city was built on a natural floodplain.

Bangkok has lost empty land areas that used to absorb water, and overbuilding has obstructed waterways. This intensifies the possibility that the city will risk severe flooding or complete submersion. 

An OECD study indicates that because of climate change, subsidence and urbanisation, Bangkok is in the top 10 of endangered cities exposed to flooding by the 2070s.

This year's catastrophe will be hard to forget, and the government is right to plan spending large amounts on flood recovery and water management projects. 

There is, however, no guarantee that this grand scheme will work out effectively. A back-up plan such as building a second capital city may be needed.

The proposal to move the capital city is not new. Many people, including politicians, have previously proposed the idea of relocating the capital city to another province.

Unlike the unplanned and exploding Bangkok, the new capital city should be carefully thought out and be somewhere higher and safer from flooding. 

Planned capitals in other countries are usually built to express the concept of statehood. Examples include Washington, D.C., in the US, Canberra in Australia, Brasilia in Brazil and Putrajaya in Malaysia.

I have visited some of these cities. It is clear that they were purposely built and tend to have elegant and impressive layouts and buildings.

Putrajaya was built to signal Malaysia's ambitious goal of being a developed nation by 2020. The new capital is part of these efforts to transform the whole country and its citizens. 

The city is meant to be a model garden city with a sophisticated information technology network.

Brasilia was built to promote the development of the country's remote land as well as to better integrate the whole of Brazil. The city was designed with clear specified zones for residential, commercial and official buildings.

On the surface, Putrajaya bears little similarity to Brasilia. Looking closer, they were built on a similar utopian notion that both were part of the plan to transform their citizens and lead their countries into a modern future.

For Thailand, the motivation for building a new capital may lie not just in the need for flood prevention, but also the need for a symbol of a new Thailand.

The recent conflict over the big-bag dyke between government officials and angry locals reminds us of the deep-rooted development problems in Thailand. 

There may be good reasons for the government to sacrifice areas in the outskirts to defend inner Bangkok, but the locals on the wet side continue to feel the unfair treatment, and more people can no longer accept the idea of placing Bangkok above the rest at all costs.

The time is ripe to consider building other major cities apart from Bangkok. A new capital in a higher location could be a good starting point to transform Thailand into a more equitable society, with proper zoning for people to live, work and play, and safety from flooding.

Experience elsewhere has shown that an effective system of flood management, land use and construction of a new capital takes several decades to materialist. 

Considering our track record of slow decision-making and long implementation, action must start today to protect our capital from future flood disasters.

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