A secret Cabinet meeting, shockingly missed by the PM, debates amnesty decree, seen as a ruse to secure a pardon for Thaksin while the country is plunged in battling its worst floods.
Who says the timing was bad? With the Yingluck government's rating threatening to nosedive, will "later" be better than "now"?
In other words, if you were the prime minister, being attacked left and right, the most controversial thing you wanted to pull off should probably be done while you still could.
And the floods would make it difficult to mobilize street protests. To add to that, there's a pressing deadline issue as well.
His Majesty the King's birthday anniversary is only about three weeks away. It's now or never for Yingluck Shinawatra, or Thaksin Shinawatra to be exact.
What the Thai public know as of now is that there was a closed-door discussion on Tuesday among certain ministers and high-ranking officials.
At that meeting, the government pushed for some special clauses for this year's amnesty to mark the King's birthday.
Those clauses, which reportedly would qualify people convicted of corruption and drug trade for the amnesty, would mark a break from tradition and certainly would be scrutinized for possible violation of the charter.
What happened on Tuesday was mostly shrouded in mystery. The secret Cabinet meeting was not chaired by Yingluck, who happened to be "stranded" in Sing Buri because the helicopter that had taken her there during the day was allegedly not well-equipped to fly in the dark.
Assigned to chair the Cabinet meeting on her behalf was Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung, who happened to be the government's front man spearheading moves to seek amnesty for those affected by years of political turmoil.
The draft amnesty decree must be vetted by the Council of State, which faces the unenviable task of plugging any legal loophole, especially when it comes to the Constitution that prohibits making the laws for any individual.
The Council of State also encounters the challenge of overcoming the highly sticky point about Thaksin never serving a single day of his two-year jail sentence.
"The pardon issue is confidential although I can say the government will not do anything illegally [to rescue Thaksin]," Chalerm said yesterday.
He side-stepped a direct question on whether the Cabinet had approved and forwarded the draft decree for royal endorsement. He only said there was no conclusion drawn on the issue.
According to Chalerm, Yingluck did not plan in advance to be absent from the crucial Cabinet meeting, although her presence would have put her on the spot.
Chalerm's claims were countered by still-unconfirmed reports that Government House had sought a "two-day" service of a military helicopter for her trip to Sing Buri.
Issuing the amnesty decree would be just clearing the first obstacle. Once the decree is in place, there will be the issue of how to put Thaksin in the scheme.
To sum it up, the whole process involves the Justice Minister forming a panel, comprising more than 20 members, to recommend the scope and details of the pardon, the Cabinet finalising the draft, the Council of State vetting any controversial provisions, and last but not least, the government deciding who will be the 26,000 convicts who will benefit.
Chalerm declined to say whether the pardon would be applicable to Thaksin, although he lashed out at an unnamed Cabinet member for leaking the news about the secret meeting to the media.
He said he was in no position to speculate on the issue because the granting of pardon was the exercise of royal power.
He said the government would comment on the decree only after the provisions were enacted and enforced. "The decree for pardon is not entirely under the government's jurisdiction and the final outcome might not be in line with what the government said at a time," he said.
Under the Criminal Procedural Code and legal precedents, past cases of pardon applied to convicts serving time in prison. The pro-Thaksin camp has argued there is no law banning the pardon from being extended to those who have been convicted but have eluded punishment.
It will be up to the Council of State to make sure controversial provisions wanted by the Cabinet won't embarrass the government or become a legal time bomb later.
Justice Minister Pracha Promnok and a number of Cabinet members reportedly said they would await the royal discretion on whether to grant a pardon to Thaksin rather than force the royal decision on the issue.
In the draft proposed by Pracha, those eligible for pardon would include convicts aged more than 60 with less than three-year jail term and no prior offense.
The Cabinet decided to delete certain clauses enforced in 2010 in order to extend the pardon to those convicted for drug trade and corruption.
Reports about the upcoming amnesty overshadowed the flood disaster, with opposition MPs, critics and anti-Thaksin elements in the social media in a major uproar. Demcrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said the opposition would not condone the hasty and suspicious move to help Thaksin elude the law.
He and other opposition MPs warned that letting Thaksin walk free despite his continuous contempt for the Thai justice system that convicted him would set a destructive precedent.
"A pardon should only be granted to those who are incarcerated and show remorse," Abhisit said, insisting that the government was about to undermine the rule of law by granting pardon to a convict like Thaksin who refuses to serve time or show remorse.
The opposition will do its utmost to object to the Thaksin pardon, he said, threatening to block every step of the pardon process.
Law lecturer Kaewsun Atibodhi said the government had seriously erred by trying to seek a pardon for Thaksin who is a fugitive.
He said he was puzzled why the government would want to pardon convicts on corruption and trafficking, offenses deemed Thailand's biggest problems even when Thaksin was PM.
Pardon is an issue under the sole jurisdiction of the government, he said, reminding Cabinet members they might face impeachment even though the judicial and legislative powers could not stop them from pardoning Thaksin.
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